Mozambique Mining Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 53

BMI View: Mozambique's mining revenue will remain heavily dependent on the country's coal sector,

leaving the sector exposed to continued global coal price weakness. Despite this, coal production growth

will continue to exceed gold output growth. Furthermore, both sectors will continue to attract interest from

overseas investors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

? We remain bullish towards gold prices and have marginally bumped up our 2016 and 2017 price

forecasts to USD1,300/oz (from USD1,275/oz) and USD1,400/oz (from USD1,350/oz), respectively.

Economic (slowing US growth) and political (Brexit) developments in recent months have reinforced our

belief that real interest rates in developed markets will remain depressed through 2016-2018 at least.

While this trajectory has largely been priced into markets for 2016, we expect that real rates will surprise

to the downside in 2017-2018. This will come as global inflation and economic growth surprise to the

upside and downside, respectively.

? The suspension of donor aid to Mozambique in the wake of the hidden debt scandal has prompted us to

downgrade our construction growth forecasts for 2016, to 4.0% in real terms down from the original

projection of 4.8%. The government will struggle to fund the road and social infrastructure projects

earmarked in its budget, as the weak commodities outlook alongside high recurrent expenditure weighs

on the fiscal balance.

Mozambique Mining Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Mozambique Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Infrastructure & Low Prices To Constrain Growth 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecasts 11
Table: Mozambique - New Coal Projects 12
Structural Trends 12
India & Japan To Ramp Up Investment 13
Price Drop Hits Profitability Though Not Output 15
Infrastructure Remains Key Challenge 16
Gold: Growth To Lack Behind Coal Sector 18
Latest Developments 18
Table: Mozambique - Gold Production Forecast 19
Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 19
Structural Trends 19
Exploration Points To Potential Long-Term Expansion 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
Mozambique - Mining Risk/Reward Index 22
Rewards 22
Industry Rewards 22
Country Rewards 22
Risks 22
Industry Risks 22
Country Risks 23
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 23
Key Takeaways 23
Latest Revisions 24
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices 25
Regulatory Development 26
2015-Recent Developments 26
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 27
Commodities Forecast 31
Commodities Outlook 31
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 31
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 34
Company Profile 35
Global Company Strategy - Vale - Q4 2016 35
Company Overview 37
Company Strategy 38
Table: Select Companies - Operational Data 40
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 41
Regional Overview 42
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 42
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 48
Methodology 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53

List of Tables

Table: Mozambique Mining Industry Value
Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecasts
Table: Mozambique - New Coal Projects
Table: Mozambique - Gold Production Forecast
Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics
Table: Select Companies - Operational Data
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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