Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: Mozambique's mining revenue will remain heavily dependent on the country's coal sector,
leaving the sector exposed to continued global coal price weakness. Despite this, coal production growth
will continue to exceed gold output growth. Furthermore, both sectors will continue to attract interest from
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
? We remain bullish towards gold prices and have marginally bumped up our 2016 and 2017 price
forecasts to USD1,300/oz (from USD1,275/oz) and USD1,400/oz (from USD1,350/oz), respectively.
Economic (slowing US growth) and political (Brexit) developments in recent months have reinforced our
belief that real interest rates in developed markets will remain depressed through 2016-2018 at least.
While this trajectory has largely been priced into markets for 2016, we expect that real rates will surprise
to the downside in 2017-2018. This will come as global inflation and economic growth surprise to the
upside and downside, respectively.
? The suspension of donor aid to Mozambique in the wake of the hidden debt scandal has prompted us to
downgrade our construction growth forecasts for 2016, to 4.0% in real terms down from the original
projection of 4.8%. The government will struggle to fund the road and social infrastructure projects
earmarked in its budget, as the weak commodities outlook alongside high recurrent expenditure weighs
on the fiscal balance.