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BMI View: In the short term, we expect the severe drought afflicting the country in 2016 to reduce output
dramatically for the grains and sugar sub-sectors. Meanwhile, dairy and beef production growth will also
slow down. However, we expect this to be a temporary setback and all areas of Morocco's agriculture
sector are set to enjoy moderate to strong growth from 2017 to the end of our forecast period. Our optimism
is bolstered by the government-initiated Green Morocco Plan, which is likely to see increased investment in
an effort to reduce the industry's weather-related production risks out to 2020. We believe that the twin
strategies of producing high-yield and market-related agriculture, as well as improving the existing water
conservation programme, will yield good results in the medium-to-long term.
Key BMI Forecasts
? Wheat production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: -27.1% to 5.8mn tonnes. Production will be volatile
throughout the forecast period as it will decline substantially in 2016/17 following a bumper crop in
2015/16. Aside from these base effects, continued investment and support from the government will keep
output growth steady.
? 2016 real GDP growth: 0.7% (down from 4.5% in 2015; forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2017).
? 2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 2.5% (up from an estimated 0.6% in 2015).