Middle East And North Africa Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 42

BMI View: MENA's power sector is relatively developed, with many markets having robust power project

pipelines - as governments endeavour to meet pent-up power demand. Egypt will be a key driver of this

growth as the country meets surging power demand, while regional oil exporters will rationalise their

power sector spending in light of falling oil prices.

- Lower oil prices will have a differing impact on the countries in the MENA region as net importers and

net exporters of oil adjust to the new price environment. For the large oil exporting economies, this will

entail rationalised infrastructure spending plans. We do stress that oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia,

UAE and Kuwait hold substantial foreign reserves and fiscal buffers - meaning that infrastructure

spending will remain elevated and government-driven.

- The GCC markets maintain their outperformance in our MENA RRI, owing to continued significant

government investment - despite ongoing fiscal consolidation in the face of low oil prices - and their

more stable investment environments. Our newly expanded regional coverage has resulted in Iraq

and Lebanon entering the bottom of the ranking tables, a position we expect them to maintain over

coming quarters, due to the sizeable risks facing prospective investors

- Momentum behind gas projects in the Middle East has accelerated under low oil prices as countries eye

gas to boost domestic power generation and as a means of diversifying exports.

- Renewables capacity will account for only a small fraction of electricity generation in the MENA region

over our 10-year forecast period due to heavy reliance on accessible and relatively economic gas- and oilfired

generation in major markets. Amid the muted outlook for growth we do highlight some investment

bright spots - specifically the UAE, Morocco and potentially Egypt.

Middle East And North Africa Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: MENA Headline Power Forecasts 5
Regional Forecast Analysis 6
MEA: Key Themes 6
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status 11
Industry Risk Reward Index 14
MENA Power Risk Reward Index 14
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 20
Industry Trends 21
Middle East - Low Oil Price Supports Gas Projects 21
MENA Renewables: Selective Investment Key Amid Muted Growth 25
Egypt: Gas Mega-Projects And Offshore Production Underpin Forecasts 31
Glossary 36
Table: Glossary Of Terms 36
Methodology 37
Methodology And Sources 37
Industry Forecast Methodology 37
Sources 40
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 40
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 41
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 42

List of Tables

Table: MENA Headline Power Forecasts
Table: UAE - Huge Bid Reductions Cements Outperformer Status
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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