Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: We believe that increased investments in advanced data networks will lead to LTE being a key
growth driver for the mobile market, as operators increasingly attempt to migrate subscribers onto higher
ARPU post-paid plans. This is in the wake of moves by the new regulator aimed at injecting higher levels of
competition in the wireless, wireline and pay-TV markets. In the wireline market, convergence is offsetting
the effect of fixed-to-mobile substitution, with wireline voice subscriptions showing a divergent upward
trend relative to other markets in the region. Additionally, as Telemex's wireline network is opened up, we
expect this to pose long-term upside risk on the uptake as well as monetisation of broadband services. The
latest pay-TV figures from IFETEL show stagnant cable subscriptions and slowly growing satellite
subscriptions. Although Axtel and Megacable have both launched IPTV in the market, we believe that
satellite in the short to medium term will continue to lead the segment.
? We have revised our forecasts for Mexico's mobile subscriber base in order to take account of Q415
figures reported by the leading operators. We estimate that Mexico had 115mn mobile subscriptions at
the end of 2015, representing a mobile subscriber penetration rate of 84.2%. We expect this to increase to
almost 90% by the end of 2016 and more than 93% by the end of our forecast in 2020.
? We have updated our forecasts for Mexico's fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, incorporating
Q415 data from regulator Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones (IFETEL). We estimate that Mexico
had 21.2mn fixed lines in service at the end of 2015 (16.7% penetration), up by 5.0% on the 2014 figure.
We forecast that Mexico will have more than 24.7mn broadband subscribers by the end of 2020. This will
equate to a penetration rate of 18.3%, up from 12.6% at the end of 2015.