Mexico Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 67

BMI View: We believe that increased investments in advanced data networks will lead to LTE being a key

growth driver for the mobile market, as operators increasingly attempt to migrate subscribers onto higher

ARPU post-paid plans. This is in the wake of moves by the new regulator aimed at injecting higher levels of

competition in the wireless, wireline and pay-TV markets. In the wireline market, convergence is offsetting

the effect of fixed-to-mobile substitution, with wireline voice subscriptions showing a divergent upward

trend relative to other markets in the region. Additionally, as Telemex's wireline network is opened up, we

expect this to pose long-term upside risk on the uptake as well as monetisation of broadband services. The

latest pay-TV figures from IFETEL show stagnant cable subscriptions and slowly growing satellite

subscriptions. Although Axtel and Megacable have both launched IPTV in the market, we believe that

satellite in the short to medium term will continue to lead the segment.

? We have revised our forecasts for Mexico's mobile subscriber base in order to take account of Q415

figures reported by the leading operators. We estimate that Mexico had 115mn mobile subscriptions at

the end of 2015, representing a mobile subscriber penetration rate of 84.2%. We expect this to increase to

almost 90% by the end of 2016 and more than 93% by the end of our forecast in 2020.

? We have updated our forecasts for Mexico's fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, incorporating

Q415 data from regulator Instituto Federal de Telecomunicaciones (IFETEL). We estimate that Mexico

had 21.2mn fixed lines in service at the end of 2015 (16.7% penetration), up by 5.0% on the 2014 figure.

We forecast that Mexico will have more than 24.7mn broadband subscribers by the end of 2020. This will

equate to a penetration rate of 18.3%, up from 12.6% at the end of 2015.

Mexico Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020) 14
Industry Risk/Reward Index 16
Latin America Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 19
Mexico Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers & Trends 22
Mobile 24
Wireline Voice And Broadband 27
Pay-TV & Convergence 29
Regulatory Development 31
Main Development: Regulator Allows 2 5GHz Band For Mobile Services 33
Additional Developments 34
Competitive Landscape 36
Key Players 36
Table: Key Players 36
Operator Data 36
Table: América Móvil 36
Table: Movistar 37
Table: *AT&T 38
Table: Grupo Televisa 38
Table: Axtel 39
Table: Maxcom 39
Table: MegaCable 40
Company Profile 41
América Móvil 41
AT&T Mexico 46
Axtel 49
Movistar 52
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025) 59
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)
Table: Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Key Players
Table: América Móvil
Table: Movistar
Table: *AT&T
Table: Grupo Televisa
Table: Axtel
Table: Maxcom
Table: MegaCable
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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