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BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater exploration
and production is curtailed amid low oil prices. The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a
string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts
by Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts:
? We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025. Weak oil
prices limit the attractiveness of boosting output, as demonstrated by Petronas' large spending cuts for
the coming four years. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investment decisions in deepwater and
marginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.
? We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 with
the start of the 300,000b/d RAPID refinery.
? Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakening
economic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remain
dominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.
? With the fall in crude oil production and the coming online of the RAPID oil refinery in 2020, we
forecast that Malaysia will become a net crude oil importer by 2020. The country will however erase
most of its refined products import requirements thanks to the refinery, and could even become a small
net products exporter by 2020, depending on the level of domestic consumption.
? The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost
Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced production