Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 103

BMI View: Malaysia's long-term crude oil production will be hit as investment in deepwater exploration

and production is curtailed amid low oil prices. The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a

string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts

by Petronas will result in reduced production post-2020.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts:

? We forecast Malaysia's crude oil production to remain on a downtrend over 2016 to 2025. Weak oil

prices limit the attractiveness of boosting output, as demonstrated by Petronas' large spending cuts for

the coming four years. Furthermore, we do not expect new final investment decisions in deepwater and

marginal projects in the next several years given their high breakeven cost.

? We expect refined fuels production to remain relatively stable over the coming years, rising in 2020 with

the start of the 300,000b/d RAPID refinery.

? Malaysia's oil consumption will grow at a slower rate over the next decade as a result of weakening

economic growth and falling energy intensity weighing on demand. The consumption mix will remain

dominated by diesel and gasoline over our forecast period.

? With the fall in crude oil production and the coming online of the RAPID oil refinery in 2020, we

forecast that Malaysia will become a net crude oil importer by 2020. The country will however erase

most of its refined products import requirements thanks to the refinery, and could even become a small

net products exporter by 2020, depending on the level of domestic consumption.

? The start-up of Petronas' PFLNG1 in H216 initiates a string of projects over 2016-2020 that will boost

Malaysia's natural gas production. Aggressive capex cuts by Petronas will result in reduced production

post-2020.

Malaysia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011 15
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014 17
Upstream Projects 19
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects 19
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Risk-Sharing Contracts Awarded 27
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 28
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 28
Upstream Production - Gas 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 33
Refining 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels Consumption 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2020-2025) 39
Gas Consumption 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025) 42
Trade - Oil 43
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020) 45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 46
Fuels Trade Forecasts 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019) 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025) 55
Industry Risk Reward Index 56
Malaysia Risk/Reward Index 56
Upstream Index - Overview 56
Upstream Index - Rewards 56
Upstream Index - Risks 56
Downstream Index - Overview 57
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 57
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 57
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 60
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Market Overview 64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 64
Oil Refineries 64
Table: Refineries In Malaysia 64
Existing Refineries 65
Planned Refineries 66
Proposed Refineries 67
Oil Storage Facilities 67
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia 68
Oil Terminals/Ports 70
Oil Pipelines 71
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 72
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals 72
LNG Import Terminals 73
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities 73
Gas Pipelines 74
Malaysia Energy Market Overview 75
Regulatory Structure 75
Fiscal Regime 77
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime 77
Licensing Regime 77
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime 77
Competitive Landscape 79
Company Profile 81
Chevron 81
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 81
ExxonMobil 82
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 83
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 83
Petronas 84
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 85
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia 85
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 86
Shell 87
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia 88
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia 88
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 88
Regional Overview 89
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 89
Glossary 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Source 100
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 100
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 102
Table: Weighting 103

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2020)
Table: Major Discoveries In Malaysia Since 2011
Table: Blocks Offered In The Petronas Licensing Round 2014
Table: Malaysia Major Upstream Projects
Table: Risk-Sharing Contracts Awarded
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Malaysia 2020-2025)
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Refineries In Malaysia
Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
Table: Malaysia - Upstream Tax Regime
Table: Malaysia - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Malaysia
Table: Major Downstream Assets In Malaysia
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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