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BMI View: Underpinning our positive annual growth forecasts across the freight modes in Malaysia over
our medium-term forecast period will be the relatively advantageous agreement that the country managed
to obtain with regard to the recently signed Trans Pacific Partnership. Due to the relatively open nature of
Malaysia's economy, the impact of the TPP provisions are set to be mostly positive, partly due to the
presence of existing trade agreements between Malaysia and several of the TPP countries.
Key Updates and Forecasts
? We envisage y-o-y total trade growth in real terms to come in at 4.1% in 2016, a trend we expect to
continue over the medium term (2016-2020) with growth also pencilled in to average 4.1%. Over this
period, imports are set to outperform exports in annual growth terms.
? A key trend at present affecting Malaysia's trade industry is that we continue to anticipate a slowdown in
Chinese economic growth in 2016 to 6.3%, which will have a significant impact on Malaysia's exportdriven
economy as China is one of Malaysia's largest export markets.
? Rail freight will lead the way in y-o-y tonnage growth terms in 2016 (5.8%) with road in second place
(3.5%), while air freight will increase by 1.1%.