Lithuania Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 16-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 96

We continue to hold our subdued outlook for the Lithuanian pharmaceuticals market during the next few years, on account of the changing economic and demographic situation. We expect limited low single digit growth in 2012, with the market expected to increase by a local currency margin of 2.5 %year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach LTL1.68bn (US$618mn) in 2012 at consumer prices. However, in US dollar terms, the market’s value will shrink by 6.3%, indicating the challenges facing companies operating in the market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals:LTL1.64bn (US$659mn) in 2011 to LTL1.68bn (US$618mn) in 2012; +2.5 %in local currency terms and -6.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.
  • Healthcare:LTL6.99bn (US$2.81bn) in 2011 to LTL7.29bn (US$2.68bn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.
  • Medical devices:LTL679mn (US$273mn) in 2011 to LTL749mn (US$276mn) in 2012; +10.3% in local currency terms and +0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.

Risk/Reward Rating:

In our Q113 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) matrix, Lithuania is 15th, out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe, below its Baltic peers. Although Lithuania boasts a largely risk-free operating environment, its muted rewards prospects will continue to impact its standing in the regional matrix. Globally, Lithuania ranks 60th out of 95 markets surveyed.

Key Trends and Developments

In October 2012, Seimas of the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) faction George Razma appealed the government to reconsider additional funding of LTL60.0mn (US$22.7mn) for healthcare institutions in the country. Lithuanian patients have to pay extra for medical services that should be available for free, Razma said. The additional funds are expected to partially solve the issue of lack of funding for treatment services. Razma asked the government to evaluate the proposal after considering the difficult situation of Lithuania’s hospital system.

BMI Economic View:

We have revised up our growth outlook for 2013 economic growth on account of improved financing conditions and signs of a tightening labour market. However, Lithuania’s construction sector remains a long way off from a meaningful recovery, and coupled with a weak external climate, we maintain a tepid outlook for the economy over the coming years.

BMI Political View:

Controversy surrounding an ongoing criminal investigation into key members of a majority newly-elected coalition party means that the incoming administration of Prime Ministerdesignate Algirdas Butkevicius will be under enormous pressure to acquire political credibility by honouring its anti-austerity mandate. Although we have long accounted for a looser fiscal policy in our view that Lithuania would continue to progress towards euro adoption, the risk of major coalition instability and a rift with the president’s office threatens to force the government into a far more aggressive policy direction than under our current baseline scenario.

Lithuania Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013

Table of Contents

Executive Summary  6
SWOT Analysis  8
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT  8
Lithuania Political SWOT  9
Lithuania Economic SWOT  9
Lithuania Business Environment SWOT  10
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings  11
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113  11
Rewards  12
Risks  12
Lithuania - Market Summary  14
Regulatory Regime  15
Regional Harmonisation  16
Pharmaceutical Advertising  17
Intellectual Property Developments  18
Pricing Regime  19
Pricing Developments  20
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 22
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 23
Reimbursement Regime  23
Reimbursement Developments  24
Industry Developments 26
Epidemiology  26
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010  27
Communicable Diseases  27
Table: Selected Notifiable Infectious Diseases, 2004-2010 28
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010  29
Healthcare System  29
Healthcare Provision  29
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010  30
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010  30
Healthcare Funding  31
Healthcare Insurance  32
E-Health  32
Clinical Trials  33
Biotechnology  34
Recent Biotechnology Sector Developments  35
Medical Devices 36
Industry Forecast Scenario  37
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast  37
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016  38
Healthcare Market Forecast  39
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016  40
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016  41
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016  41
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic  42
Table: Economic Activity  51
Prescription Drug Market Forecast  52
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016  54
Patented Drug Market Forecast  55
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016  56
Generic Drug Market Forecast  57
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016  58
OTC Medicine Market Forecast  59
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016  60
Pharmaceuticals Trade Forecast 61
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016  62
Medical Device Market Forecast 63
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016  63
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario  64
Competitive Landscape  65
Pharmaceuticals Sector 65
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2011  65
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)  66
Domestic Industry  66
Pharmaceutical Wholesale  67
Pharmaceutical Retail  68
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010  69
Pharmaceutical Distribution Developments  70
Company Profiles  72
Local Companies  72
Valentis  72
Sanitas (Valeant)  74
Sicor Biotech (Teva)  77
Multinational Companies  79
GlaxoSmithKline  79
Pfizer 81
Novartis  82
Merck & Co  83
Sanofi 84
Demographic Outlook  85
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)  86
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 87
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020  88
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 88
Glossary  89
BMI Methodology  91
How We Generate Our Pharmaceuticals Industry Forecasts 91
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92
Ratings Overview  92
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators  93
Weighting  94
Table: Weighting Of Components  94

List of Tables

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010
Table: Selected Notifiable Infectious Diseases, 2004-2010
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Economic Activity
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2011
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA)
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

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