Lithuania Infrastructure Report 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 23-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 60

In the absence of a strong parliamentary mandate, we caution that growing disillusionment with the political process in the country continues to threaten investor confidence in the construction and infrastructure sector. The construction industry value is expected to reach US$2.6bn in 2013 based on year on year (y-o-y) growth of 3.5%. This level of growth is expected to persist over the forecast period with average y-o-y growth of 3.9% until 2021, when the industry value will reach US$4.3bn

The key projects and developments are:

  • The government of Lithuania sanctioned laws to reduce the country’s reliance on energy imports from Russia. The plans include the construction of a nuclear power plant, a liquefied natural gas terminal and new transmission lines to Sweden and Poland. The new lines will enable the establishment of power grid synchronisation between Lithuania and the western region of Europe. The nuclear plant is planned to be constructed by the government in partnership with Hitachi-GE Nuclear Energy, with the plant expected to be equipped with a 1,350MW advanced boiling water reactor.
  • The European Commission (EC) green-lighted Lithuania’s 1,340MW Visaginas nuclear power plant (NPP) on June 8 2012. The favourable opinion enables nuclear power projects to apply for EU financing. However, the commission stressed that the plant is required to remain economically viable. The commission also clarified that it is unlikely to financially support the production of nuclear energy in Lithuania or elsewhere in the EU. The plant carries a price tag of around EUR5bn (US$6.32bn). Construction work is to begin in 2015, with the plant to start commercial operations in 2020-22.
  • AAA Intermodal introduced a new weekly rail freight service between Lithuania’s Port of Klaipeda and Moscow. The intermodal container rail service, which has a transportation capacity of 114 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), was launched in cooperation with rail companies in Lithuania, Belarus and Russia. We continue to see signs of a slowdown in economic activity over the coming quarters, which we expect to persist into 2013. However, a slight adjustment to our net export forecasts has seen our real GDP growth forecast for 2012 move up from 1.9% to 2.3%. While Lithuania’s long-term political outlook remains among the most stable in the emerging Europe region, we nevertheless caution that the country’s convergence with Western political and economic institutions through 2021 is by no means assured. Dealing with an economy which is set to post significantly lower trend growth over the long term (compared to pre-crisis levels), while balancing the need to pursue a more pragmatic foreign policy with Russia and the demands of an increasingly nationalist electorate, will pose significant challenges for Lithuanian governments to 2021.

Lithuania Infrastructure Report 2013

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 5
Market Overview 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Lithuania Infrastructure Industry SWOT 8
Building Materials 9
Europe 9
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12) 13
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 14
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 15
Transport Infrastructure 19
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 19
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 21
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 23
Major Projects Table - Transport 26
Table: Major Projects - Transport 26
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure 27
Table: Lithuania Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 27
Table: Lithuania Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 29
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 31
Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities 33
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities 33
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 35
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016 35
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021 35
Residential and Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario 36
Business Environment 37
Lithuania Business Environment Overview 37
Rewards 37
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns 37
Regional Overview 38
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100 40
Company Monitor 41
AB YIT Kaustas 41
AB Panevezio Statybos Trestas (PST) 43
Global Overview 45
Methodology 52
Industry Forecasts 52
Construction Industry 53
Data Methodology 53
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 53
Construction 55
Capital Investment 55
Construction Sector Employment 56
Infrastructure Risk Reward Rating 57
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 58
Sources 59

List of Tables

Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12)
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
Table: Lithuania Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
Table: Lithuania Transport Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Major Projects - Transport
Table: Lithuania Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016
Table: Lithuania Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016
Table: Lithuania Residential And Non-Residential Building Long-term Forecasts, 2015-2021
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores Out Of 100
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

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