Lithuania Autos Report 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 12-Dec-2012
No. of pages: 48

New passenger car sales in Lithuania rose 64.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, to 12,294 units, according

to the state registration agency Regitra. New commercial vehicle sales also grew by 95.8% y-o-y, to 4,690

units, according to figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

This gave a total new vehicle sales figure of 16,984 units for the year, an increase of 72.2% y-o-y.

However, it has been a different story in 2012 year-to-date, with new passenger car sales down by 2.5

%over the first nine months of the year, at 8,900 units. Commercial vehicles sales have also fallen back,

down by 5.2%, to 2,972 units over the January-August period.

Against this deteriorating backdrop, BMI has revised down its 2012 new passenger car sales forecast to a

fall of 5% for the full year. With commercial vehicle sales also set to decline by some 7%, this equates to

a 5.5% annual decline across the new vehicle sales market as a whole. The forecast is based on increased

evidence of a renewed slowdown in the Lithuanian economy, with BMI's Macroeconomic team

forecasting growth of just 1.4% in 2013, down from 2.3% growth in 2012. Domestic demand is also

being suppressed by both falling private consumption growth and still-high unemployment (13.3% in

Q212). Inflation is also still potentially a concern for the domestic economy, with the HICP measure of

inflation standing at 3.4% in September 2012, although this is down from earlier in the year. This raises

the spectre of the Bank of Lithuania potentially having to increase interest rates from current low levels of

just 1.5%. Higher interest rates would also feed into higher loan rates on car financing agreements, which

could further depress demand over the short term.

Beyond 2013, BMI is more optimistic on the longer term outlook for the Lithuanian new vehicle sales

market, forecasting expansion of 36.9% in total vehicle sales between end-2013 and end-2017, to reach

23,695 units. This is based on our view that a more pronounced recovery in demand from developed

markets and improved fiscal dynamics should pave the way for a stronger growth trajectory and, by

extension, higher new car sales for the country. Commercial vehicle sales will grow at a faster rate than

that for passenger cars over the forecast period. The main threat to our new car sales forecasts remains a

break-up of the eurozone, with the risk remaining that Greece may have to default in 2013.

In terms of manufacturers, Germany's Volkswagen (VW) is the dominant player in the Lithuanian new

car sales market, selling 2,257 units in 2011. In second place is Japanese automaker Nissan Motor, which

sold 1,663 units, followed by French carmaker Peugeot, which sold 1,398 units.

Other key players on the Lithuanian new vehicle market include Skoda and Toyota Motor in the

passenger car segment and Fiat in the commercial vehicle segment.

Lithuania Autos Report 2013

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Lithuania Autos Industry SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Lithuania Political SWOT Analysis....................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Lithuania Economic SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Lithuania Business Environment SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 8
Global Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 9
UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform ................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On ................................................................................................................................................................ 9
CEE Regional Overview ................................................................................................................................ 14
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings ...................................................................................................................... 21
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings ................................................................................................................. 21
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe ......................................................................................................................... 25
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 26
Sales......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Lithuania Auto Sales, 2010-2017 ............................................................................................................................................................. 26
Trade ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .............................................................................................................. 28
Table: Lithuania - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .............................................................................................................................................. 31
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 32
Cars .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Lithuania - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers September 2012 ............................................................................................................. 33
Commercial Vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Table: Lithuania - New CV Sales 2011 .............................................................................................................................................................. 34
Suppliers ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35
Alternative Fuels ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36
Company Monitor .......................................................................................................................................... 38
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 40
Inchcape ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Toyota Motor ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ......................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ................................................................................................................ 44
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .............................................................................................................................. 45
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Angola Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT .................................................................................................................................................. 7
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................................................................................... 8
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 ......................................................................................................... 8
Rewards ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Risks .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Market Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 11
Regulatory Regime ....................................................................................................................................... 13
Intellectual Property Issues................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Pricing And Reimbursement ............................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Regulatory Developments ................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Epidemiology ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Clinical Trials Sector .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 18
Overall Market Forecast .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016 .......................................................................................................................................... 19
Key Growth Factors - Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 ...................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 ................................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 .............................................................................................................................................. 23
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic ................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Table: Angola - Economic Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................................... 29
Company Developments ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 31
Demographic Outlook .................................................................................................................................. 32
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ............................................................................................................................. 33
Table: Angola's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................................................... 34
Table: Angola's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020............................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: Angola's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................. 35
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ 36
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 38
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ............................................................................................................................... 38
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Ratings Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ................................................................................................................................... 40
Weighting ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 41Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 7
Australia Tourism SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Australia Political SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Australia Economic SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Australia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 9
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 10
Arrivals .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Table: Arrivals, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Accommodation ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
Expenditure .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Expenditure Data, 2010-2017 .................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Inbound Tourism ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Outbound Tourism ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 ................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Market Overview - Travel ............................................................................................................................. 16
Commercial Airlines ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl), 2011-2014 ................................................................. 19
Market Overview - Hospitality ...................................................................................................................... 28
Hotels ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Asia Pacific Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings.............................................................................................................................................. 31
BMI Security Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings ................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ............................................................................................................................... 33
Australia's Security Risk Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................. 33
South East Asia Security Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s ........................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security .............................................................................................................................................. 35
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia .............................................................................................................................................. 37
Other Regional Threats ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
China-US Rivalry In South East Asia .................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Outlook For South East Asia ............................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Macroeconomic Overview ............................................................................................................................ 46
Table: Australia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 ............................................................................................................................................... 48
Global Assumptions ..................................................................................................................................... 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017 .............................................................................................................................................................. 49
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y, 2011-2014 .............................................................................................................. 50
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 ...................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 ........................................................................................................................................ 51
Developed States ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) .............................................................................................................. 52
Emerging Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 52
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) ............................................................................................................ 53
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%) ............................................................................................. 54
Company Profiles ......................................................................................................................................... 55
Amalgamated Holdings ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Australian Leisure & Hospitality Group ............................................................................................................................................................. 56
Qantas................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Singapore Airlines .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 58
Sunland Group .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Thakral Holdings ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 60
Country Snapshot ......................................................................................................................................... 61
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .......................................................................................................................... 62
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ................................................................................................................. 63
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................................................................ 64
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ............................................................................................................................... 64
BMI Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................................... 65
Tourism Industry ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 65
Tourism Ratings - Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 66
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators ................................................................................................................................................ 67
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 68
Sources ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 9
Azerbaijan Oil And Gas SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 10
Oil And Gas Reserves .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Azerbaijan Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 ................................................................................... 10
Table: Azerbaijan Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 ................................................................................... 11
Oil Supply And Demand ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Azerbaijan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2010-2016 ................................................................................................... 13
Table: Azerbaijan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2015-2021 ................................................................................................... 14
Gas Supply And Demand ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Azerbaijan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2010-2016 .................................................................................................. 17
Table: Azerbaijan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2015-2021 .................................................................................................. 19
LNG ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade ............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Table: Azerbaijan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2010-2016 ............................................................................................................ 25
Table: Azerbaijan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2015-2021 ............................................................................................................ 25
Revenues/Import Costs............................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Country Risk/Reward Ratings ....................................................................................................................... 28
Azerbaijan Upstream Ratings ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings .............................................................................................. 29
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................. 30
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating ................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................................. 34
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................ 38
Overview/State Role ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Licensing And Regulation ......................................
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