Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 16-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: Oil and gas production is expected to have bounced back strongly in 2012, despite the
obvious political risks associated with Libya’s transition to a new democratic government. Over the
longer term, both oil and gas volumes are likely to increase beyond pre-war levels as new investment
flows into under-explored areas – especially the offshore Sirte Basin. However, we note an eruption of
regional tensions under a still fragile government could destabilise upstream growth.
The key trends and developments in Libya’s oil & gas sector are:
?? We estimate total liquids production of 1.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1.77mn
b/d in 2016 and 1.85mn b/d by 2021. Gas output is forecast to increase from an estimate of
12.0bcm in 2012 to 18.0bcm by 2016 and 20.3bcm by 2021.
?? These forecasts are subject to upside risks depending on the level of upstream investment. The
new democratic government has pledged to invest US$10bn raising oil and gas production
capacity from existing fields and US$20bn on new exploration over the next 10 years, according
to oil and gas minister, Abdurahman Benyezza. If that materialises, output could well increase
beyond our long-term projections.
?? International investment is also a big unknown. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by
Libya’s vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 46.4bn barrels (bbl) and 1.56trn
cubic metres (tcm) respectively in 2011. However, clear political risks, the introduction of new
production sharing contracts (PSC), and a revised hydrocarbons law are all likely to affect the
country’s business environment.
?? Before the civil war, there was some 378,000b/d of refining capacity in Libya (according to
BMI’s Downstream Projects Database). Throughput has been well below this level in H112
because the country’s 220,000b/d Ras Lanuf facility remained shut-in until late August 2012.
Our forecasts point to a gradual restoration of refinery utilisation, with 2013 set for a return to
pre-war levels.
?? Oil and gas consumption is set to return to pre-war levels gradually because damage to
infrastructure is likely to lead to lower domestic demand from power generation. However, over
the longer term, reconstruction efforts are likely to drive economic growth and oil demand
higher.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to
US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012
reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an
apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis ..... 8
Libya Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario ............. 9
Oil And Gas Reserves ........... 9
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 .......... 9
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 ........ 10
Oil Supply And Demand ...... 13
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 .......... 13
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 .......... 14
Gas Supply And Demand .... 16
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 ........ 16
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 ........ 18
LNG ........ 20
Refining And Oil Products Trade ...... 20
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 ...... 21
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 ...... 22
Revenues/Import Costs........ 22
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ........... 23
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings ...... 24
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings .... 25
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa . 29
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores .... 30
Libya Upstream Rewards ............. 30
Libya Upstream Risks .... 30
Libya Downstream Scores ........... 31
Libya Energy Market Overview ..... 32
Overview/State Role ............ 33
Licensing and Regulation ............ 34
Tax Law ........... 34
Government Policy ........ 35
Licensing Rounds ........... 35
Fourth Licensing Round (First Gas Licensing Round) .......... 35
Third Licensing Round ... 35
Second Licensing Round 36
First Licensing Round .... 36
International Energy Relations .... 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ............ 38
Oil Refineries ........ 38
Table: Refineries In Libya ........... 38
Oil Terminals/Ports ............ 39
Oil Pipelines ......... 39
LNG Terminals ..... 40
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya ... 40
Gas Pipelines ........ 40
Competitive Landscape ... 41
Executive Summary ............. 41
Table: Key Players - Libyan Oil And Gas Sector .... 43
Table: Key Upstream Players ...... 43
Table: Key Downstream Player ... 43
Company Profiles ............. 44
National Oil Corporation (NOC) ...... 44
Eni North Africa ... 48
Total Libya ............ 50
OMV of Libya ....... 52
Repsol Libya ......... 54
Marathon Oil ........ 56
ConocoPhillips ..... 58
BP - Summary . 60
ExxonMobil - Summary . 60
Tatneft - Summary ......... 60
Occidental Petroleum - Summary 61
Hess - Summary ............ 61
Statoil - Summary .......... 62
Royal Dutch Shell - Summary ..... 62
Suncor - Summary ......... 62
PGNiG - Summary ........ 63
Gazprom - Summary ..... 63
RWE - Summary ............ 63
LIA/Verenex Energy - Summary .. 64
Indian Oil/Oil India - Summary .. 64
Others - Summary ......... 64
Regional Market Overview ............ 66
Global Energy Market Outlook ...... 71
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison ......... 73
Africa - Regional Appendix .......... 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) . 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) ............ 77
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) .... 78
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 79
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) ............. 79
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) .......... 80
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..... 80
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .. 81
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ........ 82
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)...... 82
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ... 83
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 83
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ....... 84
Glossary Of Terms ........... 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms ............ 85
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .... 87
Ratings Overview .. 87
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure ... 88
Indicators 89
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology .. 89
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology .... 90
BMI Methodology ............. 92
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..... 92
Energy Industry .... 92
Cross checks ......... 93
Sources ... 93Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
Table: Refineries In Libya
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Table: Key Players - Libyan Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • Global Cystic Fibrosis Market Propelled by Technological Advancement
    With increasing prevalence of cystic fibrosis and its growing awareness among people, the global market for cystic fibrosis is expected to grow at a steady pace. Cystic fibrosis is a genetic condition where the lungs and digestive system becomes clogged with excess mucus. This condition is more common among Caucasian population than people of Asian [...]
  • Bright Prospects Ahead for the SONAR Systems and Technology Market
    With advancement of technology, the global SONAR systems and technology market is increasing at a rapid pace. SONAR which is an acronym for SOund Navigation And Ranging is a technique that uses sound propagation to navigate and communicate with objects on or under the surface of the water, such as other vessels. In 2014, the [...]
  • Increase in Surgical Procedures Propelling the Anesthesia Drugs Market
    With increase in surgical operations and invasive medical tests, the market for anesthesia drugs has been growing at a steady pace. Anesthesia drugs can be broadly categorized into two types – general anesthesia drugs and local anesthesia drugs. Anesthetic drugs help in inducing sleep and preventing discomfort and pain during surgical procedures. By 2018, the [...]
  • Water Treatment Chemicals Market to be driven by Increasing Demand from Developing Economies
    The global market for water treatment chemicals is growing at a steady pace with rapid urbanization and high demand from end-users. Water treatment chemicals are used for treating municipal water as well as agricultural wastewater. With higher demand for clean, drinking water with increasing population and increase in the number of industries, the global market [...]
  • Rise in Prevalence of Allergic Diseases Driving the Global Allergy Diagnostics Market
    With rise in the incidences of allergic diseases in the world, the global allergy diagnostics market has also witnessed steady growth. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of people suffering from different allergies, particularly food allergies and drug allergies. The number of people suffering from asthma has also increased in [...]
  • To bring in Photography to the Real World Visual Supply Co Acquires Artifact Uprising
  • Visual Supply Co, VSCO has brought a Denver-based startup, Artifact Uprising, which is focused on bringing photographers’ work from the digital hubs on regular basis by modern creatives to the real world as prints and tangible books. Artifact Uprising is …

  • Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) Treatment Market worth $407 million by 2018
  • The graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) treatment market value will increase from $297 million in 2013 to $407 million by 2018, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.59%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData. The company’s latest report* states …

  • Poland Pharmaceutical Industry Growing at 8.3% CAGR to 2020
  • Factors such as the growing elderly population, increasing availability of affordable medicines, and transparent regulatory guidelines will provide the necessary impetus for the growth of the Polish pharmaceutical market, but a decrease in mark-up prices and the country’s stringent drug …

  • Asia-Pacific, Led by China, Drive the Global Methanol Industry
  • China is driving the global methanol industry, with tremendous demand from both its energy and petrochemicals sectors. It accounts for 87.9% of Asia-Pacific’s (APAC) methanol capacity, and 51.9% of the global methanol capacity. Despite a large planned capacity increase in …

  • Diagnostic X-ray Imaging Market worth $4.0 billion by 2020
  • GlobalData estimates that the global diagnostic X-ray imaging market, worth $2.4 billion in 2012, will reach almost $4.0 billion by 2020, increasing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.7% during the forecast period. Many players are active in …

  • Qatar Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 45
    BMI View: The Qatari power sector is set for strong growth over the coming decade as the government continues to spend heavily on new infrastructure projects, while domestic energy consumption continues to grow. There is no sign of a let-up in government spending on the horizon, particularly as the emirate gears up for the FIFA World Cup in 2022. With the economy in good shape, and demand for power likely to continue rising over the next few years, the electricity sector is in good stead. T......
  • Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 98
    BMI View: Slovakia has above-average energy import dependency compared with the regional average. The country remains dependent on Russia, but a recently announced EUR5.9bn EU infrastructure programme aims to allow for more flexibility when negotiating gas purchases and may boost supply. The key trends and developments in Slovakia's oil and gas sector are: ? Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil and gas imports for its domestic consumption, with a total hydrocarbon import bil......
  • South Africa Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 70
    BMI View: This quarter we have slightly revised our forecast to factor in some domestic supply from the Ibhubesi gas field in 2017. That said, our fundamental assumptions remain relevant. Our negative outlook for South Africa's power sector is based on inefficient existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project commissioning and the precarious financial situation of Eskom. These factors show little sign of abating over the short-to-medium term - with wide-ranging implic......
  • Spain Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 71
    BMI View: Spain's electricity market is struggling in the face of a new regulatory environment and a sluggish economy. Keen to cut costs, the government has reduced renewable energy subsidies, but it risks the wrath of providers who invested in the market expecting high returns. Recently, US company NextEra filed a complained making it the fourth official complaint of this kind. In June 2014 the Government approved a retroactive policy to replace feed-in tariff in an attempt to bring down th......
  • Sudan Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 60
    BMI View: The end of the long period of warfare provides an opportunity for investors to exploit the hydrocarbons base and ample sunshine to develop a generation capacity in Sudan and South Sudan. However, the commercial environment is hostile and the political environment remains highly unstable. The outlook for Sudan's power sector is moderate. The end of the long period of warfare provides a window of opportunity for the country to exploit its ample sunshine and large hydrocarbons base to......
  • Tanzania Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 63
    BMI View: The outlook for Tanzania's power sector is good. The government has responded to a massive increase in the demand for electricity by opening up the sector to private investment and allowing foreign companies to develop the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. Accordingly, thermal and renewable energy will enjoy strong growth over the forecast period. Meanwhile, the government is rapidly expanding the transmission network and access to the grid. However, macroec......
  • Argentina Power Report Q2 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 65
    BMI View: Argentina's power generation grew by 5.3% in 2014, as the Atucha II nuclear plant went online after years of delays - a crucial step in the government's ambitious nuclear expansion plan. Nevertheless, the country continues to suffer from poor power infrastructure and insufficient installed capacity, as highlighted by an agreement to start importing Bolivian power by the end of 2015. The recent sovereign default has further damaged the business environment and prompted us to expect ......
  • Uganda Power Report Q1 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 58
    BMI View: The outlook for Uganda's power sector is good. Following an unbundling of the power sector last decade and a commitment by the government to diversify beyond a traditional dependence on hydropower, the country is now developing the capacity to generate both thermal and renewable energy. This will underpin a near doubling in electricity generation over the next decade from 3.3TWh in 2015 to 5.8TWh by 2023. During the same time timeframe, demand for electricity will also double from ......
  • Argentina Renewables Report Q2 2015
    Published: 30-Jan-2015        Price: US $1295 Onwards        Pages: 38
    BMI View: Despite an attractive regulatory framework and ambitious government plans for expansion, we maintain a relatively bearish outlook towards the Argentine renewables industry. An unappealing business environment and limited project financing opportunities will continue to limit the sector's growth potential over the forecast period. Argentina's positive regulatory framework for renewables on the surface looks appealing to investors. For example, the country has adopted an ambitious t......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - [email protected] / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs