Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 16-Jan-2013
No. of pages: 94

BMI View: Oil and gas production is expected to have bounced back strongly in 2012, despite the
obvious political risks associated with Libya's transition to a new democratic government. Over the
longer term, both oil and gas volumes are likely to increase beyond pre-war levels as new investment
flows into under-explored areas - especially the offshore Sirte Basin. However, we note an eruption of
regional tensions under a still fragile government could destabilise upstream growth.
The key trends and developments in Libya's oil & gas sector are:
?? We estimate total liquids production of 1.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1.77mn
b/d in 2016 and 1.85mn b/d by 2021. Gas output is forecast to increase from an estimate of
12.0bcm in 2012 to 18.0bcm by 2016 and 20.3bcm by 2021.
?? These forecasts are subject to upside risks depending on the level of upstream investment. The
new democratic government has pledged to invest US$10bn raising oil and gas production
capacity from existing fields and US$20bn on new exploration over the next 10 years, according
to oil and gas minister, Abdurahman Benyezza. If that materialises, output could well increase
beyond our long-term projections.
?? International investment is also a big unknown. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by
Libya's vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 46.4bn barrels (bbl) and 1.56trn
cubic metres (tcm) respectively in 2011. However, clear political risks, the introduction of new
production sharing contracts (PSC), and a revised hydrocarbons law are all likely to affect the
country's business environment.
?? Before the civil war, there was some 378,000b/d of refining capacity in Libya (according to
BMI's Downstream Projects Database). Throughput has been well below this level in H112
because the country's 220,000b/d Ras Lanuf facility remained shut-in until late August 2012.
Our forecasts point to a gradual restoration of refinery utilisation, with 2013 set for a return to
pre-war levels.
?? Oil and gas consumption is set to return to pre-war levels gradually because damage to
infrastructure is likely to lead to lower domestic demand from power generation. However, over
the longer term, reconstruction efforts are likely to drive economic growth and oil demand
higher.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to
US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012
reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an
apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis ..... 8
Libya Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario ............. 9
Oil And Gas Reserves ........... 9
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 .......... 9
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 ........ 10
Oil Supply And Demand ...... 13
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 .......... 13
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 .......... 14
Gas Supply And Demand .... 16
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 ........ 16
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 ........ 18
LNG ........ 20
Refining And Oil Products Trade ...... 20
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 ...... 21
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 ...... 22
Revenues/Import Costs........ 22
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings ........... 23
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings ...... 24
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings .... 25
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa . 29
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores .... 30
Libya Upstream Rewards ............. 30
Libya Upstream Risks .... 30
Libya Downstream Scores ........... 31
Libya Energy Market Overview ..... 32
Overview/State Role ............ 33
Licensing and Regulation ............ 34
Tax Law ........... 34
Government Policy ........ 35
Licensing Rounds ........... 35
Fourth Licensing Round (First Gas Licensing Round) .......... 35
Third Licensing Round ... 35
Second Licensing Round 36
First Licensing Round .... 36
International Energy Relations .... 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ............ 38
Oil Refineries ........ 38
Table: Refineries In Libya ........... 38
Oil Terminals/Ports ............ 39
Oil Pipelines ......... 39
LNG Terminals ..... 40
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya ... 40
Gas Pipelines ........ 40
Competitive Landscape ... 41
Executive Summary ............. 41
Table: Key Players - Libyan Oil And Gas Sector .... 43
Table: Key Upstream Players ...... 43
Table: Key Downstream Player ... 43
Company Profiles ............. 44
National Oil Corporation (NOC) ...... 44
Eni North Africa ... 48
Total Libya ............ 50
OMV of Libya ....... 52
Repsol Libya ......... 54
Marathon Oil ........ 56
ConocoPhillips ..... 58
BP - Summary . 60
ExxonMobil - Summary . 60
Tatneft - Summary ......... 60
Occidental Petroleum - Summary 61
Hess - Summary ............ 61
Statoil - Summary .......... 62
Royal Dutch Shell - Summary ..... 62
Suncor - Summary ......... 62
PGNiG - Summary ........ 63
Gazprom - Summary ..... 63
RWE - Summary ............ 63
LIA/Verenex Energy - Summary .. 64
Indian Oil/Oil India - Summary .. 64
Others - Summary ......... 64
Regional Market Overview ............ 66
Global Energy Market Outlook ...... 71
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison ......... 73
Africa - Regional Appendix .......... 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) . 77
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) ............ 77
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) .... 78
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 79
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) ............. 79
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) .......... 80
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ..... 80
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) .. 81
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ........ 82
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)...... 82
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) ... 83
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 83
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ....... 84
Glossary Of Terms ........... 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms ............ 85
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .... 87
Ratings Overview .. 87
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure ... 88
Indicators 89
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology .. 89
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology .... 90
BMI Methodology ............. 92
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..... 92
Energy Industry .... 92
Cross checks ......... 93
Sources ... 93Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016
Table: Libya Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores
Table: Refineries In Libya
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya
Table: Key Players - Libyan Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology

  • World Economic Forum Unveils Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
    The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Scientific American lately unveiled the major technological innovation list of the top ten emerging technologies of 2016. This list emphasizes on the technological developments which have the supremacy to transform industries, protect the planet, and improve lives. It also presents an opening to discuss any societal, human, economic or [...]
  • Siemens Adds To the Growth of Wind Power Generation Market
    Siemens has been presenting ground-breaking strategies and pioneering solutions for energy generation for an intelligent power supply globally. With an expansive portfolio and wide-ranging proficiency in wind power generation, Siemens is likely to aid in increasing the share of wind power in the US energy mix. With New Mexico’s vicinity to significant wind energy areas, [...]
  • Global Public Safety LTE Ecosystem Overview
    In view of its flourishing ecosystem, spectrum flexibility and performance metrics, LTE has emerged as the leading candidate for public safety mobile broadband networks. Public safety organizations and establishments have already begun planning to advance their networks to LTE-based public safety solutions. LTE provisions a varied range of services, from high bandwidth data services to [...]
  • RnR Market Research: Biochips Market Insights
    Growing R&D investment and subcontracting of pharmaceutical companies would lead to growth in biochips market in Asia along with an increase in the application of biochips products is estimated to improve opportunity for the global biochip market. Conversely, the high cost involved in manufacturing of biochips can be seen as a challenge for the same. [...]
  • Current State of Blood Banking Market, Products, Technologies and Services
    The global blood banking and blood products market is expected to reach US$41.9 billion by 2020 with USA continuing to be the largest market worldwide. Asia-Pacific follows a close second with a projected CAGR of 9.1% during this period owing to the refining healthcare infrastructure and increase in the per capita healthcare expenditure. The major [...]
  • Brunei Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 56
    BMI View: Despite considerable potential, Brunei holds a limited hydrocarbons' reserves base. The country's government has outlined ambitious plans for expanding the oil and gas industry, but the low oil price environment is limiting investment into prospective exploration sites, most of which are located in remote offshore areas. The prospects for the downstream sector are more favourable as the new refinery and petrochemical complex at Pulau Muara Besar, scheduled t......
  • Cambodia and Laos Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 50
    BMI View: Being a frontier region for oil and gas exploration, Cambodia does not have any proven reserves or production. A deferral of development at KrisEnergy's Block A, which is the most progressive development in the country, prompted us to remove our forecast of 80mn bbl of proven oil reserves in 2016 and for first oil in 2018. The Cambodian government confirmed that exploration is inactive in licensed areas, which reinforces our bearish outlook for Cambodia's up......
  • Congo Brazzaville Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 77
    BMI View: Congo-Brazzaville's oil production and exports are expected to grow robustly until 2018 as the new production gradually comes online from a number of new fields. Risks to our forecasts lie to the upside as the lower price environment supports increased interest in the development of small, shallow water discoveries such as the Nene Marine field. Key Forecasts and Developments - Originally planned for 2014, the Congolese government has now opened up ap......
  • Iran Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 89
    BMI View: Gas production and consumption will see a substantial ramp-up in 2016/17 due to new phases of South Pars increasing gas availability. We see marginal further upside to oil production and exports, with shipments in June at 2.3mn b/d, some 1.2mn b/d higher than under sanctions. We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector: - The final version of the Iranian Petroleum Contract was approved by the Resistance Economy Head......
  • Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 78
    BMI View: Major oilfield expansion projects in Iraq will be an important source of low-cost oil production to meet future demand. We expect continued growth in output from 2017.Natural gas imports from Iran starting in 2016 will play a significant role in meeting demand from the power sector, while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019. We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector: - H116 oil production in Iraq has av......
  • Mozambique Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 24-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 97
    BMI View: FID delays, falling oil and gas prices, costs and infrastructure constraints are challenges the country will face as it moves to develop its massive offshore gas resources. While the timing of first LNG is particularly difficult to pinpoint, notably for the onshore terminal, we expect Mozambique to make its presence felt in the global LNG market by early/mid next decade. - The success of Mozambique's fifth licensing round, in the face of a broader industry d......
  • Angola Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 17-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 85
    BMI View: Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018, oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak ......
  • Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 17-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 68
    BMI View: Greater investment into improving its oil and gas import infrastructure, alongside falling production, will see Pakistan to increasingly depend on imports to offset demand. Pakistan's below-ground potential remains significant as evidenced by the continuous stream of discoveries reported by firms, though require oil prices to strengthen significantly from current levels for further development works to be economic. Latest Updates And Key Forecasts ? ......
  • Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016
    Published: 17-Aug-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 83
    BMI View: Thailand's planned LNG import terminal at Rayong, expected to commence operations in 2023, will enable the government to import more LNG to manage falling domestic gas production and limit risks to the security of gas supply from Myanmar. Strong consumer demand for gasoline and construction demand for diesel, combined with low oil prices, will provide the impetus for Thailand's refiners to maximise production over the next two years and raise the country's refin......
  • SERVICES
    Value for Money
    We believe in "optimum utilization of available budget and resources". While servicing our clients' (your) market research requirements, we keep the same approach in focus to help you get the best value for your $$s.
    Ever Growing Inventory
    Ranging from the smallest feasible / required data (datasheets, data facts, SWOT analysis, company profiles, etc) to full research reports that help you make decisions, our inventory is updated almost on a daily basis with the latest industry reports from domain experts that track more than 5000 niche sectors.
    One Stop Solution
    Need a custom research report on medical devices market? Require all available business intelligence on 3D printing industry? Exploring F&B sector of a particular country/region? RnRMarketResearch.com is your one-stop-solution to all market intelligence needs. We not only offer custom research and consulting services, we also "bundle" reports to meet your needs and help you fetch the data analysis you require for your business.
    Dedicated Client Engagement
    Not limited to only "finding" relevant reports for you, our client engagement team dedicates its efforts to understand your "business need" and accordingly maps available research data to help you move forward. Call "your" client engagement executive any time of your day and get your questions answered in order to make the correct business decision.
    Saving Time and Efforts
    Simply share your research requirement details with us and let us do all the hard work to find required intelligence for you. When you add up our "one stop solution" and "dedicated client engagement" services mentioned above, you obviously know the time and effort saving you do by working with us.
    Payment Flexibility
    Working with Fortune 500 organizations, we understand the importance of being flexible for payments. Share your payment terms with us and we will surely match up to them to ensure you get access to required business intelligence data without having to wait for the payment to be done.
    Post-Purchase Research Support
    Have questions after reading a report / datasheet bought through us? Not sure about the methodology used for data available in the research? Talk to us / Share your questions with us and if required, we will connect you with the analyst(s)/author(s) of the report(s) and ensure you get satisfactory answers for the same. Need more data / analysis / report(s) on the topic of your research/project? The RnRMarketResearch.com team is here for you 24X7 to support you with your post-purchase requirements. Subscription Offers & Packages (Get in touch with us for more details - sales@rnrmarketresearch.com / +1 888 391 5441 )
    • Ad Hoc
    • Pay - as - you - go / Bucket Subscriptions
    • Fixed Cost for #of reports
    • Customize / Personalize as per your needs