Latin America Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 80

BMI View: The outlook for Latin America looks bleak as heavily-indebted national oil companies in key

producing countries have little room to sufficiently invest in their resource base. Foreign investment

remains relatively limited and continues to be directed towards more attractive aboveground environments.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

- Latin America will see the second largest regional fall in oil production in 2016, behind North America.

- Debt-laden national oil companies will substantially reduce capital spending as low oil prices persist.

- National oil companies will not default on debt due in part to support from the sovereign.

- Continued under-investment in the downstream sector will support elevated fuels imports.

- Foreign investment will flow towards countries driving energy sector reforms.

- The growing international role of the US via crude and LNG exports will alter trade dynamics in the


Latin America Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
BMI View - Latin America Oil & Gas 5
Table: Latin America - Key Oil & Gas Sector Data 5
Regional Forecast Analysis 6
Latin America Overview 6
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025 17
Industry Risk Reward Index 19
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 19
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 19
Composite RRI: Continued Adjustments Level Off Rankings 20
Upstream RRI: Steady Scores Mask Forthcoming Shifts 21
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 22
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Reinforce Fuels Deficit 24
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 26
Industry Trends 27
Latin America - Towering Debt Will Determine Industry Direction 27
Untapped Resources Attracting Attention Of Majors 33
Global - Expanded Panama Canal Will Increase LNG Flow, Depress Prices 41
Table: Maximum Ship Sizes For Panama Canal (m) 41
Latin America - Power Diversification Opens LNG Import Opportunities 45
Cuba - Crude Import Routes Near Historic Shift 50
Brazil -Petrobras: Above Ground Obstacles Will Hinder Growth Strategy 53
Table: Petrobras Areas Of Upstream Operations 58
Price Forecasts 61
Global - Brent: Conventional Declines To Drive 2017 Recovery 61
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus* WTI & Brent Annual Average Forecasts, USD/bbl 61
Asia - JKM Prices Set To Tumble 70
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Source 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 79
Table: Weighting 80

List of Tables

Table: Latin America - Key Oil & Gas Sector Data
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Maximum Ship Sizes For Panama Canal (m)
Table: Petrobras Areas Of Upstream Operations
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus* WTI & Brent Annual Average Forecasts, USD/bbl
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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