Kenya Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 67

BMI View: We hold our positive outlook for the Kenyan mobile market in our Q416 quarterly report update

and have once again made some positive forecast revisions, based on the higher than anticipated growth in

the first half of 2016. Strong mobile market growth will be supported by low penetration rates, currently

around 82.9%. Airtel has made significant investments into developing 4G services in the country and the

operator is poised to launch its high-speed data service to rival the primacy of Safaricom this year. Airtel is

set to release its 4G service before the end of 2016 and we are of the opinion that Orange will follow suit in

2017. Mobile financial services, in particular, will be a key driver for both subscription and revenue

growth. However, we remain watchful of recent consolidation in the market, strong competition in the

wireline sector, and Helios's acquisition of a 70% stake in Telkom Kenya. Furthermore, we are still of the

opinion that the completed digital migration will free up new spectrum, easing the response to growth in the

data market.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

? The Kenyan mobile market grew by 9.2% y-o-y by the end of H116, with total subscribers reaching over

39.4mn.

? Airtel is set to launch its 4G LTE service in the country before the end of 2016 as it desperately seeks to

compete with the growing primacy of Safaricom. Orange is expected to launch their high-speed data

service in 2017.

? The regulator is planning to issue 4G spectrum concessions in the 800MHz band to all three operators

before the end of August 2016 for a fee of approximately USD25mn each. The regulator envisions

equitable holdings of the 800MHz spectrum by all three major operators to ensure healthy competition in

the market for high-speed data.

Kenya Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk/Reward Index 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 21
Kenya Risk/Reward Index 22
Market Overview 24
Market Drivers And Trends 24
Mobile 24
Table: Mobile Financial Services Subscribers 32
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points 34
Wireline Voice & Broadband 34
Table: Internet Subscriptions by Technology ('000) 37
Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market 38
Pay TV/Convergence 38
Regulatory Development 40
Regulatory Overview 40
Industry Risks 40
Main Development: 4G LTE Service Licenses 41
Additional Developments 42
Competitive Landscape 43
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector 43
Table: Mobile Market Overview 43
Table: Safaricom 43
Table: Airtel 46
Table: Orange 46
Table: Equitel 47
Table: Broadband Subscriptions 47
Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions 47
Company Profile 48
Telkom Kenya 48
Safaricom 52
Demographic Forecast 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 59
Glossary 61
Table: Glossary Of Terms 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sources 65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 65
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020)
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Mobile Financial Services Subscribers
Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points
Table: Internet Subscriptions by Technology ('000)
Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market
Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector
Table: Mobile Market Overview
Table: Safaricom
Table: Airtel
Table: Orange
Table: Equitel
Table: Broadband Subscriptions
Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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