Kazakhstan Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 28-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 57

BMI View: This quarter our core assumptions for the sector remain virtually unchanged. We continue to

expect growth in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI's 10-year forecast period to 2025, in terms of

generation and consumption. Although coal will continue to maintain its dominance over our ten-year

forecast period to 2025, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind and

solar projects in the pipeline. The government also plans to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy,

helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, with

Kazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over our forecast period.

? We expect the Kazakh solar power sector to register limited growth over the next five years, as a result of

the sporadic completion of only a small number of solar power projects. This will be in large part the

result of investment prospects in the sector being undermined by uncertainty over the country's economic

outlook and Kazakhstan's challenging business environment.

? Our Country Risk team believes that the Kazakhstan economy has turned the corner and a gradual

recovery is in sight over the coming quarters as oil prices stabilise and gain a degree of traction, and

forecast real GDP to expand by 1.5% and 2.4% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The recovery in oil prices

also bodes well for ongoing oil projects in the country and these are likely to lead to continued inflows of

foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as well as improvements to the country's infrastructure. This will

be positive for longer-term growth as Kazakhstan's infrastructure remains fairly weak.

Kazakhstan Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Kazakhstan Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 10
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 20
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 24
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Regulation and Competition 33
Pricing 34
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database 36
Table: Kazakhstan Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Samruk-Energo 38
KEGOC 38
AES 39
Company Profile 40
Samruk-Energo 40
Regional Overview 43
CEE Power Regional Overview 43
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Kazakhstan Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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