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BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge underground
potential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online by 2017, with the Tengiz project forecast
to start production in 2022. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption remain subdued for
2016 due to economic headwinds facing Kazakhstan; however, we expect an uptick in growth from 2017
onwards as the macros become more favourable.
Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:
? We have altered our gas forecasts for Kazakhstan based on revised historical data. While our
consumption figure remains the same, we have revised up our natural gas production and gas exports for
2015. Going forward we believe that Kazakhstan's gas production will be limited by the crowded
regional market and a lack of domestic consumption. This is despite the Kazakhstan's gross production
being significantly higher that commercialised production and it holding considerable gas reserves.
? Total foreign investment into Kazakhstan's oil and gas exploration was USD1.51bn in Q116 according to
the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
? Chevron announced in July that its Tengiz expansion program should receive first oil by 2022, adding an
additional 260,000 b/d. The project will raise Tengizchevroil''s production, of which Chevron has a 50%
stake, to approximately 1 million b/d, as the company extends the production plateau using enhanced oil