Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 80

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge underground

potential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online by 2017, with the Tengiz project forecast

to start production in 2022. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption remain subdued for

2016 due to economic headwinds facing Kazakhstan; however, we expect an uptick in growth from 2017

onwards as the macros become more favourable.

Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:

? We have altered our gas forecasts for Kazakhstan based on revised historical data. While our

consumption figure remains the same, we have revised up our natural gas production and gas exports for

2015. Going forward we believe that Kazakhstan's gas production will be limited by the crowded

regional market and a lack of domestic consumption. This is despite the Kazakhstan's gross production

being significantly higher that commercialised production and it holding considerable gas reserves.

? Total foreign investment into Kazakhstan's oil and gas exploration was USD1.51bn in Q116 according to

the National Bank of Kazakhstan.

? Chevron announced in July that its Tengiz expansion program should receive first oil by 2022, adding an

additional 260,000 b/d. The project will raise Tengizchevroil''s production, of which Chevron has a 50%

stake, to approximately 1 million b/d, as the company extends the production plateau using enhanced oil

recovery techniques.

Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 42
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 42
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices 43
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 46
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Index 50
Upstream Index - Rewards 50
Upstream Index - Risks 50
Downstream Index - Rewards 50
Downstream Index - Risks 51
Market Overview 52
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime 53
Licensing Regime 53
Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime 54
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 55
Oil Refineries 55
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan 56
Oil Terminals/Ports 57
Oil Pipelines 57
Gas Storage Facilities 59
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Competitive Landscape Summary 61
Company Profile 63
KMG 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Key Assets 64
Regional Overview 66
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview 66
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 66
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 67
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 68
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent 69
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 70
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 71
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade 72
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Source 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 79
Table: Weighting 80

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020)
Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025)
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime
Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan
Table: Key Assets
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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