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BMI View: Our outlook for Kazakhstan remains broadly optimistic, although we underline growing risks
related to resource nationalism and geological complications on major prospects that could deter foreign
investors. ConocoPhillips’ recent divestment of its Kazakh assets further strengthens our expectation that
IOCs could move away from the country’s hydrocarbons market. We expect strengthening ties between
Kazakhstan and China, based on the increasing diversity of the latter’s energy supply.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector are:
? Kazahstan has been strengthening its trading ties with China. Kairgeldy Kabyldin, head of KazTransOil,
seems to have made a clear choice, as he declared in early March plans to increase oil exports to China by
one-fifth in 2013. Developing ties with Chinese companies will most likely help Kazakhstan develop the
necessary infrastructure to transport fuel eastward. However, this move may create further uncertainty on
the potential interference of the government in the hydrocarbons sector.