Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

Publisher Name :
Date: 5-Jun-2013
No. of pages: 131

BMI View: Our outlook for Kazakhstan remains broadly optimistic, although we underline growing risks
related to resource nationalism and geological complications on major prospects that could deter foreign
investors. ConocoPhillips’ recent divestment of its Kazakh assets further strengthens our expectation that
IOCs could move away from the country’s hydrocarbons market. We expect strengthening ties between
Kazakhstan and China, based on the increasing diversity of the latter’s energy supply.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector are:
? Kazahstan has been strengthening its trading ties with China. Kairgeldy Kabyldin, head of KazTransOil,
seems to have made a clear choice, as he declared in early March plans to increase oil exports to China by
one-fifth in 2013. Developing ties with Chinese companies will most likely help Kazakhstan develop the
necessary infrastructure to transport fuel eastward. However, this move may create further uncertainty on
the potential interference of the government in the hydrocarbons sector.

Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2013

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 11
Table: Kazakhstan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 11
Table: Kazakhstan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 . 12
Oil Supply And Demand .. 14
Table: Kazakhstan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016 . 14
Table: Kazakhstan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 . 15
Gas Supply And Demand . 20
Table: Kazakhstan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016 20
Table: Kazakhstan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 21
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 23
Table: Kazakhstan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017 23
Table: Kazakhstan Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 26
CEE - Risk/Reward Ratings .. 26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings . 27
Caspian Retains Lead In Upstream Ratings . 27
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 28
Russian Trouble Persists . 30
Regional Minnows Breaking In .. 32
Downstream Stabilisation 32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Ratings .. 36
Market Overview 37
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview . 37
Overview/State Role . 37
Licensing And Regulation 38
International Energy Relations .. 42
Table: Kazakhstan - Upstream Projects . 45
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 45
Oil Refineries . 45
Table: Downstream Projects . 47
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan 47
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 48
Oil Pipelines .. 48
Gas Storage Facilities .. 51
Gas Pipelines . 51
Competitive Landscape . 53
Table: Key Players - Kazakhstan Oil And Gas Sector 54
Company Profile . 55
KazMunaiGaz (KMG) 55
Chevron . 60
Eni Kazakhstan 64
BG Kazakhstan 68
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan 72
Shell Kazakhstan . 75
Lukoil Kazakhstan .. 78
CNPC 81
Other Companies - Summary 85
Regional Overview 91
Europe Energy Overview .. 91
A Dependent Relationship 93
Looking For A Break Up . 95
Central Asia: Beneficiaries Of Europe's Russian Fatigue . 97
Moving From Pipeline To LNG .. 98
Russia Strikes Back .. 99
Eastern Europe: Black Sea Gold Rush .. 100
Shale Gas Showdown . 101
Global Industry Overview 103
Global Energy Market Overview .. 103
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) 104
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts . 111
Industry Trend Analysis .. 113
Growing Implementation Base . 114
Developed Drive . 116
Appendix .. 117
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix . 117
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 117
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 118
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 118
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 119
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) . 120
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) . 120
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) . 121
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 122
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm) . 122
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 123
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) . 124
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) . 124
Glossary 125
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 125
Methodology .. 127
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 127
Ratings Overview 127
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure 128
Indicators . 128
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology . 128
Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology . 130
Energy Industry .. 130
Cross checks 131
Sources . 131Table: Kazakhstan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Kazakhstan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Kazakhstan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Kazakhstan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Kazakhstan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Long-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Kazakhstan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Kazakhstan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Table: Kazakhstan Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Kazakhstan - Upstream Projects
Table: Downstream Projects
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan
Table: Key Players - Kazakhstan Oil And Gas Sector
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology

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