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BMI View: Kazakhstan's mining sector remains well placed for long-term expansion over the next few
years, with the country taking advantage of its geographical location to position itself as an important
supplier of commodities to the Asian and European markets. While we forecast the prices of key mined
commodities such as coal, copper and iron ore to remain weak through to 2020, the sector is well placed to
take advantage of the upside and, in particular, renewed demand from the likes of China and India.
Strengthening trade links with these markets appear to support his strategy.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? Despite ongoing weakness in global commodity prices we anticipate positive growth in Kazakhstan's coal
and iron ore production in 2016 and through the remaining forecast period. We forecast coal output to
grow by 1.9% a year on average over 2016-2020 to reach 143mn tonnes (mnt), while iron ore output will
increase by 1.2% to 28.1mnt.
Prices of both commodities will contract in 2016, with iron ore prices averaging USD53/tonne compared
with USD56/tonne last year and thermal call slipping to USD53/tonne. The price of copper will also fall,
averaging USD4,900/tonne compared with USD5,493/tonne in 2015.
The long-term growth of the mining sector will be supported by increased overseas demand as well as the
growing needs of the domestic energy sector. The country's mining and energy sectors are attracting the
attention of China and India and the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments recently signed agreements
worth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and chemical industries. This
includes the construction of a mining and metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region.