Kazakhstan Mining Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 49

BMI View: Kazakhstan's mining sector remains well placed for long-term expansion over the next few

years, with the country taking advantage of its geographical location to position itself as an important

supplier of commodities to the Asian and European markets. While we forecast the prices of key mined

commodities such as coal, copper and iron ore to remain weak through to 2020, the sector is well placed to

take advantage of the upside and, in particular, renewed demand from the likes of China and India.

Strengthening trade links with these markets appear to support his strategy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Despite ongoing weakness in global commodity prices we anticipate positive growth in Kazakhstan's coal

and iron ore production in 2016 and through the remaining forecast period. We forecast coal output to

grow by 1.9% a year on average over 2016-2020 to reach 143mn tonnes (mnt), while iron ore output will

increase by 1.2% to 28.1mnt.

• Prices of both commodities will contract in 2016, with iron ore prices averaging USD53/tonne compared

with USD56/tonne last year and thermal call slipping to USD53/tonne. The price of copper will also fall,

averaging USD4,900/tonne compared with USD5,493/tonne in 2015.

• The long-term growth of the mining sector will be supported by increased overseas demand as well as the

growing needs of the domestic energy sector. The country's mining and energy sectors are attracting the

attention of China and India and the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments recently signed agreements

worth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and chemical industries. This

includes the construction of a mining and metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region.

Kazakhstan Mining Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Iron Ore: Muted Growth Ahead Due To Weak Prices 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 11
Structural Trends 12
Coal: Increasing Prices To Drive Production 13
Latest Updates 13
Table: Coal Production Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 14
Structural Trends 15
Industry Set For Solid Growth 16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Europe: Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Commodities Forecast 22
Commodities Outlook 22
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 22
Regulatory Development 24
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes 24
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 26
Competitive Landscape 29
Table: Largest Mining Companies - Eastern Europe 30
Company Profile 34
KAZ Minerals 34
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results 36
Eurasian Natural Resources 37
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results 38
Regional Overview 39
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

List of Tables

Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020)
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2020)
Table: Coal Production Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2012-2020)
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes
Table: Largest Mining Companies - Eastern Europe
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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