Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 64

BMI View: Construction sector growth in Kazakhstan is set to accelerate in the coming years, as the sector

continues to display resilience in the face of a lacklustre, yet gradually improving, economic situation. Our

optimistic view is underpinned by the government's willingness to finance infrastructure projects with

deficit spending in the context of its economic diversification plan. We expect the residential building and

transport subsectors in particular to emerge as key growth engines within Kazakhstan's wider construction

industry, as the government seeks to mollify a restive populace with affordable housing programmes and

Chinese investment breathes life into cross-border road and rail projects.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? We have left our construction sector growth forecast unchanged for Q4. We expect growth to average

4.5% in 2016, and to subsequently accelerate over the next five years, with annualized average growth of

5.7%.

• We forecast oil prices to recover gradually in the coming years, from an average of USD46.5 per bbl in

2016 to USD71 per bbl by 2020. As oil is the primary source of government revenue, we expect the

government's fiscal deficit to ease and an uptick in economic growth, conditions which augur well for

increased investment in Kazakhstan's infrastructure sector.

• Residential building starts grew 18% y-o-y in the first six months of 2016; concurrently, President

Nazarbayev announced in February that he intended to allocate USD1bn to the construction of affordable

housing, which underpins our view that the residential sector will outperform in the coming years.

Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2025) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Kazakhstan) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2025) 12
Structural Trends 13
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Latest updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Kazakhstan: Key Transport Projects 24
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Top Five Major Kazakh Projects - Energy & Utilities 33
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Top Five Major Kazakh Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 42
Kazakhstan - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 42
Rewards 42
Risks 43
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 44
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 50
Competitive Landscape 50
Company Profile 53
KazMunayGas 53
Methodology 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sector-Specific Methodology 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

List of Tables

Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2025)
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Kazakhstan)
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2025)
Table: Kazakhstan: Key Transport Projects
Table: Top Five Major Kazakh Projects - Energy & Utilities
Table: Top Five Major Kazakh Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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