Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: Construction sector growth in Kazakhstan is set to accelerate in the coming years, as the sector
continues to display resilience in the face of a lacklustre, yet gradually improving, economic situation. Our
optimistic view is underpinned by the government's willingness to finance infrastructure projects with
deficit spending in the context of its economic diversification plan. We expect the residential building and
transport subsectors in particular to emerge as key growth engines within Kazakhstan's wider construction
industry, as the government seeks to mollify a restive populace with affordable housing programmes and
Chinese investment breathes life into cross-border road and rail projects.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
? We have left our construction sector growth forecast unchanged for Q4. We expect growth to average
4.5% in 2016, and to subsequently accelerate over the next five years, with annualized average growth of
We forecast oil prices to recover gradually in the coming years, from an average of USD46.5 per bbl in
2016 to USD71 per bbl by 2020. As oil is the primary source of government revenue, we expect the
government's fiscal deficit to ease and an uptick in economic growth, conditions which augur well for
increased investment in Kazakhstan's infrastructure sector.
Residential building starts grew 18% y-o-y in the first six months of 2016; concurrently, President
Nazarbayev announced in February that he intended to allocate USD1bn to the construction of affordable
housing, which underpins our view that the residential sector will outperform in the coming years.