Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that this
is the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform well
over the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect to
take hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrock
commodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex.
The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefunded
schemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.
? Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -2% to 13.4mn tonnes. Yields will support modest annual
increases in output beyond 2016/17. This is despite declining acreage due to subsidies incentivising
sowings of other field crops. The main reason for the decline is low base effects.
? Milk consumption growth to 2020: 16.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the short
term by a challenging macroeconomic environment, but we expect strong growth to return in the later
years of our forecast period.
? 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5%, down from 1.3% in 2015, predicting to average 4% out to 2020.
? 2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.8% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.