Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 62

BMI View: The interest of foreign investors in the Kazakhstan livestock industry supports our view that this

is the sub-sector with most growth potential. Poultry production in particular is expected to perform well

over the next five years. The development of the livestock industry ties into another key trend we expect to

take hold over our forecast period: the diversification of arable production away from the bedrock

commodity, wheat. Feed grains will assume greater importance, particularly corn, in the grains complex.

The dairy industry is growing from a weaker base than that enjoyed by meat producers, so we expect statefunded

schemes to play a more significant role in its medium-term development and modernisation.

Key Forecasts

? Wheat production growth to 2019/20: -2% to 13.4mn tonnes. Yields will support modest annual

increases in output beyond 2016/17. This is despite declining acreage due to subsidies incentivising

sowings of other field crops. The main reason for the decline is low base effects.

? Milk consumption growth to 2020: 16.0% to 5.3mn tonnes. Demand will be held back in the short

term by a challenging macroeconomic environment, but we expect strong growth to return in the later

years of our forecast period.

? 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5%, down from 1.3% in 2015, predicting to average 4% out to 2020.

? 2016 average consumer price inflation: 12.8% y-o-y, up from 7.0% y-o-y in 2015.

Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Dairy Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Kazakhstan - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 14
Livestock Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: Kazakhstan - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Meat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 19
Grains Outlook 20
Latest Updates 20
Table: Kazakhstan - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 22
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 23
Commodities Price Analysis 25
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 25
Upstream Analysis 27
Europe GM Outlook 27
Europe Machinery Outlook 34
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 37
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 40
Downstream Analysis 46
Food 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Food Sales (Kazakhstan 2013-2020) 48
Regional Overview 50
Europe Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025) 59
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62

List of Tables

Table: Kazakhstan - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020)
Table: Kazakhstan - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Meat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020)
Table: Kazakhstan - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Kazakhstan 2012-2020)
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates)
Table: Food Sales (Kazakhstan 2013-2020)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kazakhstan 1990-2025)
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