Israel Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 81

BMI View: The recent approval of Israel's highly-contentious natural gas framework is fostering activity in

the country's upstream sector. Israel has already announced plans to auction up to 24 new offshore blocks

by the end of 2016, while the country's flagship Leviathan gas project is seeing progress with its

development plan being approved in June. In light of these developments, we hold our view that a lasting

regulatory stability and successful implementation of Israel's new gas framework will be crucial for the

development of the country's prospective gas industry.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

? On 22 May 2016, Israel's government approved the revised offshore gas plan, aiming to partially break

up the offshore gas monopoly of Noble and Delek and establish a greater regulatory stability in the

upstream sector. Importantly, a compromise has been found on the highly contentious 'stability clause',

which is expected to foster exploration and development of major gas projects.

? Israel is looking to auction up to 24 new offshore blocks by the end of 2016. Despite the resource

potential, we see only marginal interest from companies with sufficient offshore knowledge and

experience.

• In August 2016, a Cypriot energy company Energean agreed to buy Israel's Tanin and Karish offshore

gas fields from Delek for USD148.5mn. Within the six months from this date, Energean is expected to

submit development plans for the two fields.

? In June 2016, US-based Noble Energy received an approval from the Israeli authorities for its

development plan for the Leviathan field. The development costs of phase one are estimated at

USD3.5-4.0bn and the first production is slated for 2019.

? As a part of Tamar field expansion, Delek and Noble expect to spud Tamar 8 well in Q4 2016. Total net

expenses are valued at USD228mn. In the meantime, Noble has agreed to divest 3% of its working

interest in Tamar field to the Israel-based Harel Group for USD369mn.

Israel Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Fiscal Conditions in East Mediterranean 12
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel 15
Upstream Production - Oil 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements 23
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas 24
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025) 25
Refining 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuel Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2014-2019) 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2020-2025) 31
Gas Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019) 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Oil 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Potential Leviathan Gas Deals 42
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities 43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 45
Industry Risk Reward Index 46
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 47
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 49
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Israel - Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 54
Israel Energy Market Overview 54
Regulatory Structure 54
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes 54
Licensing Regime 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 55
Oil Refineries 55
Table: Israel - Refineries 56
Oil Pipelines 56
Table: 750km Of Pipelines 56
Oil Terminals 57
Table: 3.7mn Cubic Metres Of Storage Capacity 57
Gas Storage 57
Gas Pipelines 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector 60
Table: Key Downstream Players 61
Company Profile 62
Noble Energy 62
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Israel 63
Regional Overview 64
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview 64
Oil Production: Output On Upward Trajectory 64
Oil Consumption: Gas And Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand 67
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre) 67
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Outcompete 69
Gas Production: Upstream Focus Swaying To Gas 70
Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Drive Demand 72
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade 73
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Source 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 80
Table: Weighting 81

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)
Table: Fiscal Conditions in East Mediterranean
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Potential Leviathan Gas Deals
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes
Table: Israel - Refineries
Table: 750km Of Pipelines
Table: 3.7mn Cubic Metres Of Storage Capacity
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Israel
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (USD/Litre)
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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