Iraq Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 73

BMI View: The dire security situation and virtually non-existent public spending will deter investment in

Iraq's construction sector in the near term. On a positive note, FDI is being promised for the future,

especially in its hydrocarbons industry and gas pipeline infrastructure, which see the return of fixed

investment in 2017 as the oil price stabilises. Meanwhile, the project pipeline remains swollen with large

residential developments, but the investment and operating environment make it exceptionally challenging

to conduct business.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

? Security and macroeconomic headwinds facing the industry are still firmly in play. Our short-term view

remains unchanged with growth of 3.3% forecast for 2016 and 3.6% in 2017 after several years of

contraction.

• Long-term growth of a forecast 4.7% annually to 2025 is far below the country's potential, given the need

for major reconstruction after years of war. In January 2016 Baghdad cancelled projects worth IQD10tn

(USD9bn) and postponed another 2,169 projects worth IQD37tn that had been approved in the 2015

budget as the government faces a severe fiscal crisis brought about by a drastic fall in its oil revenues.

• The Iraqi government also announced in January it would not approve projects in 2016.

• Nevertheless, our core view is for oil prices to rise from H216, with Iraq making gains against Islamic

State forces and the economy to begin slowly improving, which could set in motion a return of

investment and activity in the construction sector from 2017.

Iraq Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iraq 2015-2025) 7
Risk/Reward Index 8
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iraq) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2015-2025) 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Iraq's Long-Term Scenarios 18
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 24
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Major Projects - Transport 32
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 33
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Iraq Electricity Consumption 2013 35
Table: Top Five Major Projects - Energy and Utilities 42
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 43
Industry Forecast Scenario 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 51
Iraq - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 51
MENA Infrastructure RRI: Oil Prices And Security Remain Key Risks 53
Table: Select Infrastructure Investments January -- June 2016 58
Table: MENA RRI 61
Market Overview 62
Competitive Landscape 62
Table: Key Company Financial Data 62
Methodology 66
Industry Forecast Methodology 66
Sector-Specific Methodology 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

List of Tables

Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Iraq 2015-2025)
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Iraq)
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Iraq 2015-2025)
Table: Iraq's Long-Term Scenarios
Table: Major Projects - Transport
Table: Iraq Electricity Consumption 2013
Table: Top Five Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
Table: Select Infrastructure Investments January -- June 2016
Table: MENA RRI
Table: Key Company Financial Data
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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