Iran Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 49

BMI View: The removal of most of the sanctions previously imposed on Iran will be the biggest factor

affecting trade in the country over the medium term as Iran's government looks to negotiate deals that

benefit the economy and, by extension, the freight industry as a whole. Iran's economy will see a notable

acceleration in growth in 2016 and beyond; however, because of huge infrastructure deficits and other

major impediments such as corruption, it will be limited to around 5-6% over the coming years. Road

freight will lead the way in the freight mix in 2016, seeing year-on-year growth of 2.8%.

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? The removal of all UN and almost all EU sanctions, as well as all US secondary sanctions from January

2016, has allowed non-US companies to invest in the country for the first time in five years. We envisage

total trade to grow by 4.5% year-on-year in 2016 and then by 6.0% in 2017.

? Increased interest and funding pledges for Iranian infrastructure from regional nations in Europe, the

Middle East, and Asia will be a significant driver of accelerated growth in infrastructure investment over

the coming months. Recent high-profile deals (see below table) include a Kremlin-backed USD2.5bn

loan designated for rail and power improvements and a commitment on the part of the Indian government

to extend USD500mn for the development of port and rail infrastructure at Chabahar.

? Iran stands to benefit from Chabahar, as it will get an enhanced port from which to export more goods to

India and the Asia-Pacific region at a time when Iran is seeking to reintegrate itself into the global

economy. Iran would also benefit from increased Indian investment. For their part, it seems that Indian

firms are seeking to gain first-mover advantage in one of the world's biggest new emerging markets at a

time when Western companies are still hesitant about entering Iran.

? We forecast a rapid uptick in economic growth in Iran as large-scale investment and rapidly rising

exports follow the removal of sanctions. Iran has huge potential across almost all sectors, not just oil and

gas which attracts most of the attention, and we highlight industries related to the consumer - especially

autos and food and drink. Pent-up demand, a youthful population, a skilled workforce, and a strong

hydrocarbon and consumer story all make Iran one of the most positive and relatively well-balanced

economic growth stories in the Middle East over the next decade.

Iran Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2013-2020) 6
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Trade Forecast 9
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2013-2020) 12
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2013-2020) 13
Table: Main Import Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn) 13
Table: Main Export Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn) 14
Road Freight Forecast 15
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2013-2020) 18
Rail Freight Forecast 19
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2013-2020) 24
Air Freight Forecast 25
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2013-2020) 29
Shipping Forecast 30
Ocean Shipping 31
Table: Major Ports Data (Iran 2013-2020) 34
Market Overview 35
Company Profile 39
Iran Air Cargo 39
Demographic Forecast 41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025) 42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025) 42
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025) 44
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sector-Specific Methodology 47
Sources 49

List of Tables

Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Trade Overview (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn)
Table: Main Export Partners, 2007-2014 (USDmn)
Table: Road Freight (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Rail Freight (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Air Freight (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Major Ports Data (Iran 2013-2020)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025)
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