Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: We maintain our generally positive outlook for the Indonesian telecommunications market in

our latest Q4 2016 report update. Current and ongoing investments will help improve the national

broadband infrastructure. Nevertheless, the geographical barriers to Indonesia's archipelagic nature and

high development costs will pose a downside risk to the government's plan to develop the national fixed

infrastructure. By engaging in 4G network and infrastructure sharing arrangements, Indonesia's mobile

networks operators will benefit from efficiencies that will not only boost LTE rollout speeds, but also help

the operators reduce costs. The proliferation of 4G mobile connections could have a dampening effect on

demand for fixed broadband services. However, we envisage downside risks to 4G service uptake, as the

new minimum local content requirements on LTE-enabled devices could have the effect of increasing

production costs and, consequently, the price of smartphones.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

? Total subscriptions in the mobile sector grew to 337.5mn at the end of Q1 2016, for a penetration of

130.5%. Amid market saturation, mobile operators will aim to reverse downward trending ARPUs by

migrating subscribers on to post-paid plans and higher-value services.

? We estimate strong growth in the 3G/4G mobile sector as heavy investments by operators continue

to push technological uptake forward.

? Fixed broadband subscribers will grow by 18.3% in 2016 to reach 9.00mn, and this number is

expected to rise to 15.76mn in 2020. However, penetration will still remain low under 6.0% as costs

and topological factors limit expansion speed.

Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2020) 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416 18
Indonesia Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers & Trends 22
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice & Broadband 30
Table: Telkom Key Submarine Cable Developments 34
Pay TV 34
Regulatory Development 36
Industry Risks 36
Main Development: Ministry Threatens to Revoke Licenses 37
Additional Development 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Key Operator Revenues (USDmn) 38
Table: Spectrum Holdings For Top 5 Cellular Operators, 2015 38
Table: Mobile Market Overiew 38
Table: Indosat 39
Table: Telkomsel 42
Table: XL Axiata 44
Company Profile 48
Indosat 48
Telkom 53
Telkomsel 59
XL Axiata 63
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 71
Glossary 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Indonesia 2013-2020)
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416
Table: Telkom Key Submarine Cable Developments
Table: Key Operator Revenues (USDmn)
Table: Spectrum Holdings For Top 5 Cellular Operators, 2015
Table: Mobile Market Overiew
Table: Indosat
Table: Telkomsel
Table: XL Axiata
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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