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BMI View: We have revised down our 2013 growth forecast for non-hydro renewable generating
capacity due to delays in several geothermal projects. We believe these delays will affect geothermal
projects in the future, and have slightly revised down our long-term forecasts. Despite the downward
revision, we still believe that geothermal energy will continue its dominance in Indonesia’s renewable
sector, but it will be a stretch for the government to meet its geothermal targets. Additionally, we have
started incorporating solar capacity into our renewable forecast following the announcements of various
government and private solar projects in late-2012.
We have revised down our 2013 growth forecast for non-hydro renewable generating capacity in
Indonesia from 16.8% to 12.8%. This is due to a downward revision in geothermal capacity.
We have also revised down our long-term growth forecasts for non-hydro renewable capacity, and now
expect growth to average 12.9% per annum between 2013 and 2021 (down from 13.2%). Despite this
revision, our forecasts remain relatively sanguine as we expect electricity consumption and the country’s
costly reliance on fuel imports to drive renewables growth.
Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
o The government extended the feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme to include hydropower and biomass
applications through Ministerial Regulation 04/2012. The scheme applies to projects with
capacities below 10MW, and offers differentiated rates based on location and technology.
o On July 18 2012, the Indonesian government raised the FiT for geothermal power plants from
US$0.097 per kilowatt hour (kWh) to between US$0.10 and US$0.17/kWh. The government
announced that it would provide IDR2trn (US$213mn) of loans to finance geothermal projects
undertaken by IPPs or the state utility. This reflects the challenge that Indonesia is facing in
attracting private investors and power providers to enter the country’s geothermal sector.
o Indonesia will receive a new commercial-scale wind farm, bringing the tally to two. However,
we do not expect wind energy to play a large role in Indonesia’s energy mix, as geothermal will
be more attractive than wind energy.