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BMI View: Regulatory uncertainty and low oil prices will impede exploration in Indonesia at least at
present. Though refinery upgrades and newbuild projects are drawing interest from national oil companies,
they are progressing slowly and Indonesia will remain a large importer of refined fuels.
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
? We believe that the proposed amendment to Indonesia's oil and gas law will create regulatory
uncertainty. Together with the low oil price environment, it will serve to dampen investor interest in the
upcoming licensing round in 2016.
? We have revised up our forecast for Indonesia's 2016 crude oil and gas production, as higher-thanexpected
production ramp-up at several major projects will offset mature field decline. Production will
fall from 2017 for crude oil and from 2018 for gas.
? We have downgraded Indonesia's refining capacity forecast. We believe that delays to the upgrading of
the Cilacap refinery, the first among a pipeline of refinery upgrade and newbuild projects, will push back