Indonesia Mining Report Q3 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 85

BMI View: Indonesia's mineral production growth will remain slow on the back of heightened

environmental protection, slowdown in the Chinese economy and continued mineral price weakness. The

impending ban moderation on the export of mineral ores will provide some respite to production, especially

in the case of bauxite.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

? We expect the Indonesian government will push ahead with its February 2016 proposal to revise the

country's mineral ore export ban by September 2016 as expected investment in the downstream sector has

not materialised. The bauxite sector will benefit most from the relaxation of the ban, as the sector

registered poor smelter construction and the greatest loss in revenues as a result of the ban. We expect our

current production forecasts to face upside risks due to the impending ban moderation.

? We forecast bauxite production growth in Indonesia to register an annual average of 148.2% during

2016-2020, mainly because of acceleration in production in 2016 of 600% due to China Hongqiao Group

Limited's smelter facility coming online. Hongqiao will initially produce one million tonnes per annum of

aluminium, doubling capacity by 2017. One tonne of aluminium requires approximately five tonnes of

bauxite to produce. Contrary to numerous smelter project proposals in 2014 and our past expectations on

high smelter investment from China, smelter investment for bauxite has been stagnant as a result of low

prices and lack of funding. In March 2016 Hongqiao started trial runs in its new alumina smelter in

Indonesia, adding to the only other smelter in the country, PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina, a subsidiary

of diversified local miner PT Antam.

? We expect Indonesia's coal production to fall by 15.0% to 314 million tonnes in 2016, followed by

subdued growth henceforth to 2020, registering an average annual growth of 3.0% per annum during

2016-2020. Over the long term, despite the one time fall in domestic production due to the crackdown on

illegal mining in 2015, we believe output will be supported by strong demand from a domestic pipeline of

coal-fired power plants. Although emerging economies like the Philippines will continue to rely on

Indonesian coal for power generation, a spate of piracy incidents in the last few months attacking

Indonesian ships will undermine shipments in the upcoming quarters. Additionally, India's ramping up of

domestic coal production will eventually reduce the country's reliance on Indonesian coal imports in the

coming years.

Indonesia Mining Report Q3 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020) 7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Hongqiao To Drive Growth 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 11
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project 12
Structural Trends 12
Nickel: Strong Growth Ahead 16
Latest Developments 16
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020) 16
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects 16
Structural Trends 17
Coal: Domestic Demand To Drive Growth 20
Latest developments 20
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 20
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects 20
Structural Trends 21
Copper: Steady Growth Ahead 29
Latest Developments 29
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 29
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects 30
Structural Developments 30
Grasberg To Drive Output Growth 33
Tin: Environmental Regulations To Slow Growth 35
Latest Developments 35
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020) 35
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects 36
Structural Trends 36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 40
Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Industry Rewards 40
Country Rewards 40
Risks 40
Industry Risks 40
Country Risks 41
Asia Risk/Reward Index 41
Key Takeaways 41
Latest Revisions 42
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 43
Regulatory Development 44
Key Developments 44
Ban Moderation On The Horizon 44
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities 45
The 2009 Mining Law 45
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis 47
Commodities Forecast 51
Commodities Outlook 51
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Key Players 52
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia 53
Company Profile 55
PT Antam 55
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data 57
PT Bumi Resources 58
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data 60
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) 61
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data 62
PT Timah 64
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 66
Freeport-McMoRan - Q3 2016 68
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 70
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data 75
Regional Overview 76
Asia Overview 76
Slowing Iron Ore Production 76
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 77
China & India To Lead In Outbound Investment 78
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 79
Chinese Coal & Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 81
Methodology 82
Industry Forecast Methodology 82
Sources 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 85

List of Tables

Table: Indonesia - Mining Industry Value Forecast (2012-2020)
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Bauxite Project
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (Indonesia 2010-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Select Nickel Projects
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Select Coal Projects
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Copper Projects
Table: Tin Production Forecast (Indonesia 2012-2020)
Table: Indonesia - Major Tin Projects
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Table: Indonesia - Export Restrictions On Select Commodities
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Indonesia
Table: PT Antam - Key Financial Data
Table: Bumi Resources - Key Financial Data
Table: ITM - Key Financial Data
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Freeport McMoRan - Key Financial Data
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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