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BMI View: After a slowdown in Asian trade in 2015, Indonesia's trade sector is set to return to growth in
2016 and will strengthen over the medium term. All major commodities exports and imports are expected to
return to positive growth and with it, Indonesia's freight transport modes will benefit. Rail and air freight
will, in particular, see marked growth as a result of state and external investment in upgrading
infrastructure. Although Indonesia's ports will also continue to experience stable growth, their still-poor
capacity and efficiency will hinder its growth potential. Indonesia's aggressive approach towards
strengthening its trade ties with Australia, Malaysia and the European Union are all positive signs that the
country is set to achieve significant expansion in real and nominal trade volumes over the medium and long
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? Indonesia's trade agreements with Australia, Malaysia and the European Union are all positive signs
suggesting that the country's bourgeoning import and export sector is poised to grow significantly over
the medium and long term out to 2020 and beyond. Imports will be driven by a strong rise in domestic
consumption and growing purchasing power of individuals and households. Exports, on the other hand,
will be propelled by a robust manufacturing and commodities sector. A general slowdown in Asian
economies and key trading partners in the region remains an ever present risk to our forecast.
? Road freight growth is forecast to grow by 3.7% in 2016, at 1.38bn tonnes.
? Rail freight volumes are forecast to rise by 4.2% in 2016, reaching 36.81mn tonnes.
? Air freight tonnage is set to rise to 3.4% in 2016, more than doubling the 1.5% we estimate was seen in
2015, to reach 512,000 tonnes.
? Indonesia's real trade growth will move back into positive figures in 2016, at 1.5%, building on 2015's