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Indonesia's consumer electronics market is forecast to grow around 12% in 2013, driven by economic
growth and strong demand for smartphones and flat-panel TV sets. The consumer story in Indonesia
continues to be one of the brightest in the world and Indonesia's consumer electronics market remains one
of the most untapped markets in Asia. In 2012, strong wage growth continued but we believe that the
Indonesian consumer has hit its cyclical peak, and now see growth in the space slowing modestly in 2013
to 5.5% from 5.7% in 2012. Despite the challenging nature of distribution in the country, due to its
archipelagic structure, a PC penetration rate of less than 2% and digital camera household penetration of
less than 20% offer a continued growth opportunity.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: US$4.2bn in 2012 to US$4.7bn in 2013, +11% in US dollar terms. Forecast in
US dollar terms downwardly revised after a slowdown in H112, but growing affordability and credit
availability are driving sales in the consumer segment. AV sales: US$4.5bn in 2012 to US$5.0bn in 2013,
+13% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised but the flat-screen TV set
market continues to grow strongly year-on-year (y-o-y).
Handset sales: US$2.3bn in 2012 to US$2.7bn in 2013, +13% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar
terms upwardly revised smartphones now accounting for around 20% of the local handset market.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Indonesia's score is 42.5 out of 100.0. Indonesia ranks an unchanged 9th in the
Asia region in our latest RRR table, ahead of regional peers such as the Philippines and Thailand.
Indonesia's vast size and currently low penetration across a range of consumer electronics product
categories should see the country rise in the rankings over time.
Key Trends & Developments
Indonesia is again expected to be one of the fastest-growing regional PC markets, continuing the
double-digit growth of recent years. Rising PC penetration points to exceptional growth potential
with the main drivers being growing affordability and more credit availability.
TV sets will be the main driver of AV category sales growth over the forecast period as
Indonesian consumers upgrade their CRT sets. TV set penetration is estimated at around 75% in
Indonesia, leaving room for continued growth. A booming market in the past few years has
spurred the development of a local TV set manufacturing industry and led to a fall in imports
even as the market soared.
The Indonesian market has also seen a surge in popularity of smartphones, but, as in other
emerging Asian markets, however, the grey sector remains a significant feature of the market,
with cheap knock-off models, many from China, ubiquitous in the market. The number of
mobile users will continue to expand, fuelled mainly by younger people, among which the
popularity of social networking applications has prompted an explosion in mobile phone