Hungary Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 07-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 55

BMI View: The outlook for Hungary's power sector is mixed. On the one hand the government is keen to

improve energy security and is investing in the expansion of both cross-border connections and domestic

capacity. On the other hand very slow consumption growth combined with artificially lowered electricity

prices and a lack of investment incentives means the market remains unattractive to developers, particularly

in the underdeveloped renewable energy sector. At present we are maintaining our forecasts for limited

growth in generation and capacity through to 2025, with the Paks power plant expansion expected to come

online beyond the end of our current forecast period.

Latest Updates and Structural Trends

? Hungary will reportedly be required to fulfil two conditions to get the European Commission's (EC)

approval for the project: the first condition states all issues associated with the supervision of the power

plant should be 'clearly separated' from existing policymaking and the second is that the power produced

should be sold at a power exchange in line with market principles and not directly to the Hungarian

national grid.

? Investment is ongoing to modernise and upgrade electricity infrastructure in Hungary. EON confirmed a

number of projects in the last few months, including the HUF600mn project to replace power lines and

gas pipelines in the Kaposvár region and HUF1.5bn in similar upgrade works in the Gy?r region.

? Following a fall in electricity generation in 2015, we forecast a slight return to growth in 2016 with

generation expected to increase by 0.62% to reach 29.31TWh - leaving Hungary reliant upon electricity

imports.

Hungary Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Hungary 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Hungary Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Hungary Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 18
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 19
Transmission & Distribution 20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019) 21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025) 21
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 22
Hungary Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 29
Market Overview 31
Key Policies And Market Structure 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Pricing 32
Table: Half-yearly electricity and gas prices, second half of year, 2012-14 (EUR per kWh) 32
Hungary Power Projects Database 33
Competitive Landscape 35
MAVIR 35
MOL 35
EdF 35
E.ON 36
RWE 36
Electrabel 37
Company Profile 38
MVM 38
Regional Overview 41
CEE Power Regional Overview 41
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55

List of Tables

Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Hungary 2015-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2014-2019)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Hungary 2020-2025)
Table: Half-yearly electricity and gas prices, second half of year, 2012-14 (EUR per kWh)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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