Hungary Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI Industry View

Hungarian petrochemicals production is coming under pressure as a result of moderating demand in

domestic and external markets. Growth indices pointed to a downturn even before the UK's Brexit vote,

which is set to hit the country's export markets - particularly the automotive industry, which represents a

sizeable proportion of petrochemicals demand. We caution that the growth in basic chemicals and polymers

reported by the country's leading petrochemicals producer MOL in H116 could be reversed in H216 in

response to softening demand.

The Hungarian petrochemicals industry has registered a downturn that appeared to strengthen as the year

progressed. In H116, the average growth rate for chemical products was -3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), while

the rubber and plastic product segment contracted 9.3%. This compared to the overall 4.0% decline reported

in the industrial sector as a while. Although production of rubber and plastic products shrank, the MOL

Group reported that ethylene grew 5.2% y-o-y to 384,000 tonnes while propylene rose 4.2% to 198,000

tonnes in H116, most of which originated in Hungary. Butadiene output was 63,000 tonnes, close to full

operational capacity at the new 130,000tpa unit in Hungary. In polymers, low density polyethylene grew by

6.3% to 102,000 tonnes; high density polyethylene rose 7.4% to 189,000 tonnes; and polypropylene rose by

1.1% to 271,000 tonnes.

However, MOL's polymer sales were flat at 535,000 tonnes, giving little upside to its overall petrochemicals

sales performance. Its petrochemicals sales growth of 5% to 670,000 tonnes was instead supported by

lower-value products, with 5% growth in external olefins sales (ethylene and propylene) to 105,000 tonnes

and the 27,000 tonnes of external butadiene sales.

? Hungary will not be able to sustain polymer output growth at current levels at a time of sluggish sales

performance and a contracting rubber and plastic products market, nor will it be able to compensate for

flat polymer sales with rising sales of olefins feedstock. We believe that H216 could see a cut in

petrochemicals output and a reversal of the growth seen in 2015.

? In BMI's Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index, Hungary's score has fallen 0.5 points to 58.4 on the

back of a worsening outlook for market risk. Worsening performance in the construction and automotive

end markets amid a European slowdown reduces the scope for growth. The trend was confirmed by a fall

in the output of rubber and plastic products in H116. There is a possibility of cuts to capacity utilisation

in H216. In this context, there is no reason to expect Hungarian petrochemicals producers to enlarge

refining and polymer capacities appreciably during the forecast period.

Hungary Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Political 9
Economic 10
Operational Risk 11
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Hungary's Petrochemical Industry, Historical Data & Forecast, 2012-2020 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts 18
Economic Analysis 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
Hungary Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 29
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 33
Upstream 33
Downstream 34
Company Profile 37
BorsodChem 37
Magyar Olaj-és Gázipari (MOL) 40
Regional Overview 43
Europe Overview 43
Global Industry Overview 54
Demographic Forecast 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hungary 1990-2025) 64
Glossary 66
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 66
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 71

List of Tables

Table: Hungary's Petrochemical Industry, Historical Data & Forecast, 2012-2020
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hungary 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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