Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 63

BMI View: We have attributed the fall in mobile subscriber numbers in 2015 to the saturated state of the

Hong Kong mobile market, together with Hong Kong's slowing economic growth and already high levels of

LTE adoption. This will be exacerbated by a yet another MVNO entering the market - Hong Kong

Broadband Network (HKBN) received an MVNO licence from the Office of the Communications Authority

(OFCA) in July, further saturating the already competitive mobile market. Operators are deriving growth

and value from customers by bundling higher-value products and services like video and smart applications

to their primary offerings. In addition, the potential for post-paid subscribers to outnumber prepaid ones

will remove some subscriber number volatility and reduce churn rates for operators in the longer term. This

has positive implications for average revenues per user (ARPU).

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

? The latest data from the OFCA showed there were 16.685mn mobile subscribers at the end of May 2016 -

up only 0.6% y-o-y - reflecting the maturity of the market. We forecast 16.99mn mobile subscribers

by the end of our five-year forecast period in 2020, for a penetration rate of 224.7%, of which 94.4%

will be 3G/4G. The highly-saturated mobile market provides little room for organic growth, and revenue

growth will come from migrating subscribers to post-paid plans and encouraging consumption of

more value-added services.

? In the wireline sector, the focus is on FTTH as subscribers demand faster and more reliable fixed

network connections. Based on full year data from the regulator for broadband subscribers, we forecast

the number of broadband internet subscriptions to reach 2.65mn by 2020, equivalent to a penetration

rate of 35.1%.

Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2020) 15
Telecoms Risk/Reward Index 16
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416 18
Hong Kong Telecoms Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 21
Market Drivers & Trends 21
Mobile 22
Wireline Voice & Broadband 26
Pay TV/Convergence 28
Regulatory Development 30
Regulatory Overview 30
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Telecoms Market 33
Table: Operator Revenues (USDmn) 33
Table: Hong Kong Mobile Market Overview 34
Table: CSL 34
Table: Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (3 Hong Kong) 35
Table: SmarTone Hong Kong 36
Table: PCCW Mobile 37
Company Profiles 39
CSL 39
Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (HTHKH) 42
PCCW 45
SmarTone Telecommunications 49
Demographic Forecast 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025) 55
Glossary 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 63

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Hong Kong 2013-2020)
Table: APAC Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q416
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Telecoms Market
Table: Operator Revenues (USDmn)
Table: Hong Kong Mobile Market Overview
Table: CSL
Table: Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (3 Hong Kong)
Table: SmarTone Hong Kong
Table: PCCW Mobile
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Hong Kong 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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