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BMI View: Plans for a LNG import terminal will pose upside risk to Hong Kong's rising natural gas
consumption. Increases in vehicle population and air traffic will sustain the uptrend in Hong Kong's refined
fuels demand, although growth will remain stunted until 2016, due to a weaker economic outlook.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
? CLP Power's plan to build Hong Kong's first LNG import terminal will complement the city's piped gas
imports from mainland China, posing upside risks to our gas consumption forecast for Hong Kong.
? The project will give the government flexibility to aggressively increase the share of natural gas in the
energy mix in an economical way and also allow for supply diversification.
? Offshore gas fields in the South China Sea - within the vicinity of Hainan Island and Yacheng - will
remain a key supply source for Hong Kong. This is due to new gas discoveries and the option for
producers to capitalise on existing infrastructure - specifically the Yacheng pipeline - to transport their
new production to Hong Kong.
? We have maintained our moderate forecast for Hong Kong's refined fuels consumption growth rate to
average 3.3% per annum over the next 10 years. This is largely premised on our economic outlook and
growing efficiencies in the transport sector. Risks to our refined products consumption outlook are
increasingly to the downside given our Country Risk team's increasingly pessimistic outlook on
economic growth in Hong Kong.
? Over the longer term, policies that encourage purchase of cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles will
moderate the increase in refined fuel demand beyond 2020. For instance, the number of electric vehicles
on the roads has grown exponentially due to financial incentives and rapid deployment of charging