Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 03-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 58

BMI View: Plans for a LNG import terminal will pose upside risk to Hong Kong's rising natural gas

consumption. Increases in vehicle population and air traffic will sustain the uptrend in Hong Kong's refined

fuels demand, although growth will remain stunted until 2016, due to a weaker economic outlook.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

? CLP Power's plan to build Hong Kong's first LNG import terminal will complement the city's piped gas

imports from mainland China, posing upside risks to our gas consumption forecast for Hong Kong.

? The project will give the government flexibility to aggressively increase the share of natural gas in the

energy mix in an economical way and also allow for supply diversification.

? Offshore gas fields in the South China Sea - within the vicinity of Hainan Island and Yacheng - will

remain a key supply source for Hong Kong. This is due to new gas discoveries and the option for

producers to capitalise on existing infrastructure - specifically the Yacheng pipeline - to transport their

new production to Hong Kong.

? We have maintained our moderate forecast for Hong Kong's refined fuels consumption growth rate to

average 3.3% per annum over the next 10 years. This is largely premised on our economic outlook and

growing efficiencies in the transport sector. Risks to our refined products consumption outlook are

increasingly to the downside given our Country Risk team's increasingly pessimistic outlook on

economic growth in Hong Kong.

? Over the longer term, policies that encourage purchase of cleaner and more fuel efficient vehicles will

moderate the increase in refined fuel demand beyond 2020. For instance, the number of electric vehicles

on the roads has grown exponentially due to financial incentives and rapid deployment of charging

infrastructure.

Hong Kong Oil and Gas Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Hong Kong 2014-2020) 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts 7
SWOT 8
Oil & Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Upstream Production - Oil 9
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 9
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 9
Upstream Production - Gas 10
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 10
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 10
Refining 11
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 11
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 11
Refined Fuels Consumption 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 19
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 19
Gas Consumption 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Existing And Proposed Fuel Mix 20
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 22
Trade - Oil 22
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2020) 22
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 23
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 24
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk Reward Index 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 35
Hong Kong - Risk/Reward Index 36
Upstream Index 36
Downstream Index 37
Market Overview 38
Hong Kong Energy Market Overview 38
Regulatory Structure 38
Table: Hong Kong - Key Taxes 39
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 40
Service Stations 40
Oil Storage And Terminals 40
Gas Pipelines 40
LNG Terminal 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Competitive Landscape Summary 42
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Oil & Gas Sector 43
Table: Key Downstream Players 43
Regional Overview 44
Asia - Positive Gas Output Growth In Conflict With Bearish Oil Outlook 44
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Source 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 57
Table: Weighting 58

List of Tables

Table: Headline Forecasts (Hong Kong 2014-2020)
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Existing And Proposed Fuel Mix
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Hong Kong 2020-2025)
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Hong Kong - Key Taxes
Table: Key Players - Hong Kong Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting
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