BMI View: Despite a shaky outlook in 2016 on the back of weak Chinese demand, we expect that Hong
Kong's trade will enjoy positive real growth this year, following a contraction in 2015. Things will improve
onwards from 2017, but imports will continue to drive growth in total trade, with exports growth set to
remain comparatively weak.
Latest Updates And Forecasts
? Hong Kong continues to struggle to remain a major global player in container shipping, and following a
drop in box throughput volumes in 2015, we forecast a fifth consecutive year of declines in 2016. Growth
will return in 2017 but will remain only modest over the course of our forecast period to 2020. Beyond
that, the port authorities will need to make substantial investments in order to encourage a return in
? Although we anticipate a return to growth in Hong Kong's road haulage sector in 2016 - following five
consecutive years of contractions - the expansion will be sedate. A poor outlook for Hong Kong's
external trade will hamper growth.