Guatemala Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 28

BMI View: Guatemala's infrastructure industry will slow in 2016 and 2017 as the fallout from the

corruption scandal surrounding former president Otto Pérez Molina continues to weigh on public sector

capacity to implement projects. Growth will remain muted over the long term as Jimmy Morales, the new

president, lacks the experience and political support to quickly pass reforms.

Latest Updates

? We maintain our expectation for construction industry growth to slow - with 1.8% forecast for 2016 - as

the fallout from the corruption scandal continues to weigh on institutional capacity and the overall

business environment.

? Our view that the corruption scandal will negatively impact project development is now beginning to play

out, with the future of the USD252mn Puerto Quetzal Container Terminal concession in question under

new President Jimmy Morales.

? Much-needed reforms will not be implemented quickly as Morales lacks the legislative support and

political experience to push measures through. As such, we expect continued muted growth, with average

annual real growth of 2.2% expected over our 10-year forecast to 2025.

? Over the long term, construction as a percentage of GDP will fall gradually from 3.9% in 2016 to 3.3% in

2025.

Guatemala Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Guatemala 2015 - 2025) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Guatemala) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 8
Guatemala - Construction: Corruption Scandal Fallout Will See Multi-Year Weakness 8
Table: Construction Industry Forecast (Guatemala 2015-2025) 8
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 13
Latin America Infrastructure RRI: Private Sector Participation Propelling Outperformers 13
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 20
Methodology 21
Industry Forecast Methodology 21
Sector-Specific Methodology 22
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 26
Sector-Specific Methodology 27
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 27
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 28

List of Tables

Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Guatemala 2015 - 2025)
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Guatemala)
Table: Construction Industry Forecast (Guatemala 2015-2025)
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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