Greece Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 71

BMI View: We retain our core outlook for the Greek telecommunications market in our Q4 2016 report

update. Our outlook is based on the stronger performance of the market in 2015. The mobile market added

960,000 new subscribers in 2015, a healthy number when compared to the 2014 losses. Early data from

2016 suggest that the market saw modest gains of 62,000 new subscribers in Q116. Meanwhile, fixed-line

connections contracted at a slower rate than we had previously predicted. We remain cautiously optimistic

about the Greek market in general. The mobile market is highly saturated, and other concerning trends

point towards a shift in low-cost prepaid services, meaning consumers are spending less. The three major

carriers had launched 4G services by the start of 2015. Operators are expected to put a growing emphasis

on the promotion of 3G and 4G subscriptions and services over the next five years as a way of winning and

retaining customers and boosting revenue.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

? Based on evidence of strong subscriber growth in 2015 and Q116, we now estimate that Greece had

16.579mn mobile subscriptions at the end of the first quarter of 2016, up 5.6% y-o-y and equating to

penetration of more than 151.3%. We now predict just over 17.09mn mobile subscriptions and a

penetration of over 155.3 by the end of our new five-year forecast period to 2020.

? The primary focus of Greece's three mobile network operators, Cosmote, Vodafone and WIND Hellas,

is on the promotion of 3G and 4G LTE services. Customer numbers are expected to rise from

approximately 8.2mn in 2016 to just over 10.6mn in 2020. By end of 2020, our forecast envisages

3G/4G penetration rate of over 62%.

? Latest data suggest that Greece had approximately 4.74mn fixed line subscribers at the end of 2015. A

number we see shrinking to 4.577mn by end of 2020. Similarly, we now estimate that there were

4.712mn fixed and mobile broadband subscriptions at the end of 2015, up by 13.9% y-o-y. This will

rise to 5.33mn by the end of 2020.

Greece Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Greece 2013-2020) 16
Telecoms Risk/Reward Index 17
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016 19
Greece Industry/Risk Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers And Trends 22
Mobile 23
Wireline Voice And Broadband 30
Pay TV/Convergence 32
Regulatory Development 33
Regulatory Overview 33
Industry Risks 33
Main Development: 800Mhz / 2600MHz Spectrum Auctions 35
Additional Developments 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Key Players 36
Table: Key Players - Greece Telecoms Sector 36
Table: Mobile Market Overview 36
Table: Cosmote 37
Table: Vodafone Greece 38
Table: WIND Hellas 38
Company Profiles 40
Forthnet 40
Hellas Online (HOL) 44
Cosmote 47
Vodafone Greece 52
WIND Hellas 56
Demographic Data 60
Demographic Forecast 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Greece 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Greece 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Greece 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Greece 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Greece 1990-2025) 63
Glossary 65
Table: Glossary Of Terms 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sources 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 71

List of Tables

Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Greece 2013-2020)
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
Table: Key Players - Greece Telecoms Sector
Table: Mobile Market Overview
Table: Cosmote
Table: Vodafone Greece
Table: WIND Hellas
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Greece 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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