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BMI View: Cheese production will see buoyant growth in the coming years due to strong export
opportunities, while sugar will remain on a declining trend as competition is set to increase in the EU.
Poultry consumption will still outperform the livestock sector due to its lower cost, providing a modest push
to corn production towards the end of our forecast period to 2020. As the Greek economy finds relative
stability, our forecasts remain largely unchanged from our last quarterly update. However, we have
upgraded our forecast for poultry production while downgrading our predictions for pork and beef output.
- Poultry consumption from 2016 to 2020: up 17.6% to 208,200 tonnes. The cheaper price of poultry
meat means it will still gain ground against beef and pork. However, we do not expect poultry to overtake
either beef or pork in consumption by the end of our forecast period. In 2017, we expect poultry
consumption to exceed production for the first time.
- Cheese production to 2020: up 18.2% to 233,530 tonnes. Solid export opportunities will lead the way
in keeping the dairy segment supported.
- 2016 real GDP growth: 0.2% (from an estimated contraction of 0.2% in 2015, expected to grow
by 1.2% on average over 2016-2020).
- 2016 consumer price inflation: 0.5% (up from an estimated deflation of 1.1% in 2015).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD13.3bn in 2016, up by 1.6% on 2015 level of