Global Tin Metals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 53

BMI View: We maintain our tin price forecasts at USD16,500/tonne in 2016 with gradual increases to

USD20,500/tonne by 2020 as the global tin market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

However, the strong rally in H116 will fade over the coming months as a narrowing deficit will ease supply

constraints. As a result, we are neutral towards H216.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

? We maintain our tin price forecast at an average of USD16,500/tonne in 2016 and USD17,500/tonne in

2017. Although the supply constraint in the tin market has eased in 2016 (we forecast a deficit of 4.6kt)

as compared to 2015 (deficit of 6.7kt), the price rally has run ahead of the fundamentals. This is because

of a combination of speculative trading and positive investor sentiment stemming from China's economic

stabilisation in H116 and the market reacting strongly to the steep refined tin deficit in 2015, after a

surplus of 13.9kt in 2014.

? Tin prices have bottomed in 2016, although the rally in the year-to-date is not representative of the long

term outlook for the metal, and cannot be sustained. Chinese refined tin production and consumption data

show that there has been a rapid narrowing of the market deficit in the year-to-date, which brought us to

revise our forecasts to show a smaller global deficit in 2016 than 2015. Thus, we expect the price rally

will ease over the coming months as a narrower deficit will start to reflect in prices, giving way to more

gradual and modest increases in the coming years owing to shrinking inventories and prolonged deficits.

We expect the deficit to narrow gradually from 4.6mnt in 2016 to 2.3mnt by 2020, and are thus

maintaining our price forecasts for now.

Global Tin Metals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts 5
Price Forecast 8
Commodities Forecast 8
Table: BMI Tin Price Forecast 8
Table: Tin Forecasts 14
Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade 15
Global - Tin: Market To Remain In Deficit 15
Table: Global Tin Forecasts 16
Table: Tin Production Forecasts 19
Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts 22
Mine Supply: Tin Ore 24
Global - Tin: Slower Production Growth Ahead 24
Table: Global Tin Ore Production Forecast (2011-2020) 24
Table: Global Selected Tin Projects 29
Competitive Landscape 32
Table: Global - Top 10 Tin Producers By 2015 Output 32
Table: Selected Tin Companies, 2014 33
Company Profile 35
Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad 35
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data 38
PT Timah 39
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data 41
Minsur 42
Table: Minsur - Latest Annual Financial Results 44
Yunnan Tin 46
Table: Yunnan Tin - Latest Annual Financial Data 48
Data Appendix 50
Tin Production Balance 50
Table: Global Tin Forecasts 50
Production Forecasts 51
Table: Tin Production Forecasts 51
Consumption Forecasts 51
Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts 51
Methodology 53
Cross Checks 53

List of Tables

Table: Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Table: BMI Tin Price Forecast
Table: Tin Forecasts
Table: Global Tin Forecasts
Table: Tin Production Forecasts
Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts
Table: Global Tin Ore Production Forecast (2011-2020)
Table: Global Selected Tin Projects
Table: Global - Top 10 Tin Producers By 2015 Output
Table: Selected Tin Companies, 2014
Table: MSC - Key Financial Data
Table: PT Timah - Key Financial Data
Table: Minsur - Latest Annual Financial Results
Table: Yunnan Tin - Latest Annual Financial Data
Table: Global Tin Forecasts
Table: Tin Production Forecasts
Table: Tin Consumption Forecasts
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