Global Steel Metals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 31-Aug-2016
No. of pages: 95

BMI View: The H116 global steel price rally will continue to fade and prices will head lower in the latter

half of 2016 as declining Chinese steel demand growth, stemming from a slowdown of the country's

construction activity, will result in an oversupplied market. From 2017 onwards, prices will gradually

edger higher due to Chinese supply moderation.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

? We have slightly revised down our steel price forecast over our forecast period to 2020, as Chinese

government stimulus measures, implemented in the housing market, and positive investor sentiment,

resulted in steel prices rallying over H116. The stimulus measures will result in Chinese steel production

coming offline at a slower pace than we initially expected (see: 'Steel Prices To Head Lower In H216',

July 21). We forecast the H116 steel price rally to fade over the latter half of 2016, but gradually edge

higher from 2017 onwards, due to Chinese supply moderation. We forecast steel prices to average

USD510/tonne during 2016-2020, significantly lower than the annual average of USD667/tonne during

2011-2015.

Global Steel Metals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
BMI View 7
Table: Steel Price Forecast 7
Price Forecast 9
Global - Steel: Short-Term Downside, But Gradual Recovery By Mid-2017 9
Table: Steel Price Forecast 9
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 9
Long-Term Outlook 10
Table: Global Steel Forecast 17
Global Trends In Supply, Demand & Trade 18
Steel: China To Feed Market Supply Glut 18
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2014-2020) 19
Supply: China To Remain Key Producer 19
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts, '000 tonnes (2014-2020) 22
Demand: Weak Growth, Though Bright Spots Remain 23
Table: Select Countries - Steel Consumption Forecast (2014-2020) 27
Mine Supply: Iron Ore 31
Global - Iron Ore: Brazil And Australia To Defy Global Slowdown 31
Table: Select Countries - New Iron Ore Projects 37
Competitive Landscape 46
Table: Crude Steel Production Market Share By Country/Region (%), 2015 51
Table: Largest Listed Steel Producers By Market Capitalisation 52
Company Profile 54
POSCO - Q4 2016 54
Table: POSCO - Financial Results 59
ArcelorMittal - Q4 2016 60
Company Strategy 63
Company Strategy 64
Financial Data 66
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 66
Hebei Iron Ore and Steel - Q4 2016 67
Table: HBIS Financial Results (2009-2014) 69
Severstal Q4 2016 71
Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data 75
ThyssenKrupp AG - Q4 2016 76
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data 79
Mobarakeh Steel Company - Q4 2016 80
Tata Steel Limited - Q4 2016 84
Company Strategy 87
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data 89
Appendix 90
Steel: Production Balance 90
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2014-2020) 90
Production Forecast 91
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts (2014-2020) 91
Consumption Forecast 92
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Consumption Forecast (2014-2020) 93
Methodology 95
Cross Checks 95

List of Tables

Table: Steel Price Forecast
Table: Steel Price Forecast
Table: Global Steel Forecast
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2014-2020)
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts, '000 tonnes (2014-2020)
Table: Select Countries - Steel Consumption Forecast (2014-2020)
Table: Select Countries - New Iron Ore Projects
Table: Crude Steel Production Market Share By Country/Region (%), 2015
Table: Largest Listed Steel Producers By Market Capitalisation
Table: POSCO - Financial Results
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Table: HBIS Financial Results (2009-2014)
Table: Severstal - Key Financial Data
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2014-2020)
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts (2014-2020)
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Consumption Forecast (2014-2020)
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