Global Power Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 55

BMI View: Global electricity generation capacity will grow by an annual average of 3% over the next

decade. Thermal capacity (coal-, gas- and oil-fired facilities) will continue to dominate the global capacity

mix. The share of nuclear and hydropower in the power mix will remain stable, renewables will grow at the

most rapid pace, accounting for 18% of total generation capacity in 2025, up from 11% in 2016.

- Within the thermal power segment, coal will retain its status as the dominant fuel for electricity

generation, despite strong growth in gas and renewables generation and global commitments to fighting

climate change. We maintain that investment in coal will remain resilient as growth in emerging markets

(particularly in Asia) offsets a decline in coal-fired capacity in North America and Western Europe.

- While we expect strong growth in electricity consumption in Asia and MENA in particular, this is

counterbalanced by stagnant or even falling demand for electricity in developed markets over the next

decade. Consumption in NAWE will be constrained by improved energy efficiency, as well as growth in

distributed generation, batteries, advances in smart technology and smart grids, and widespread

deployment of supply and demand management measures.

Global Power Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Global Power Headline Forecasts 5
Global Forecast Analysis 7
Global Overview: Power And Renewables 7
Industry Trends 13
Global - Global Power Consumption: Per Capita Patterns In Four Key Charts 13
Renewables Auctions To Become More Widespread, Favour Big Companies 18
Table: Lowest Bids For Solar Projects In Notable Recent Renewables Auctions 22
Battery Storage: Multi-Sector Disruption Potential 24
Table: Battery Storage Overview: A Plethora Of Technologies 24
Global Company Strategy 28
Spain - Iberdrola: Well Placed To Weather Brexit 28
France - EDF: Renewables Bright Spot Amid Continued Uncertainty Elsewhere 36
Table: EDF - H1 2016 Key Financial Results 37
Price Forecasts 42
Gas Price Rally Ready To Fizzle Out 42
Table: BMI's Henry Hub And NBP Price Forecasts 42
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55

List of Tables

Table: Global Power Headline Forecasts
Table: Lowest Bids For Solar Projects In Notable Recent Renewables Auctions
Table: Battery Storage Overview: A Plethora Of Technologies
Table: EDF - H1 2016 Key Financial Results
Table: BMI's Henry Hub And NBP Price Forecasts
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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  • China Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 77
    BMI View: This quarter our forecasts remain virtually unchanged. China's power continues to be affected negatively by the ongoing economic slowdown in the country and the government's continued efforts to tackle coal consumption. The government's centralised coal reduction efforts, coupled with the increased adoption of renewable energy - and also 'cleaner' fuels such as nuclear power - will lessen coal's dominance of the power mix over the coming decade. We expect coal-f......
  • Israel Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 58
    BMI View: Israel is overwhelmingly dependent on the thermal sector, a situation which is unlikely to alter significantly during our forecast period, with its contribution to overall generation set to abate from 98.5% in 2016 to 92.8% in 2025, while rising in absolute terms. During the course of the next 10 years, gas will become a more important generator of thermal power than coal, while there will be a moderate improvement in the contribution of non-hydropower renewable......
  • Kuwait Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 50
    BMI View: Kuwait will register limited power generation capacity growth over the next decade, with the exception of the Al-Zour gas power facility, as a poor track-record in executing big-ticket infrastructure projects coupled with a limited project pipeline will weigh on sector expansion plans. We note that ambitious government plans to develop a non-hydro renewables sector provide an upside risk to our forecast. Latest Updates And Structural Trends - Kuwait'......
  • Namibia Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 62
    BMI View: Non-hydropower renewable energy will be Namibia's most lucrative investment due to lower costs and ease of deployment to rural communities. Meanwhile thermal and hydropower development will remain mostly stagnant up until 2025 due to political indecision, pricing and logistical issues. Namibia will remain a net-exporter of electricity over our 10-year forecast period. Latest Updates And Structural Trends - The Namibian High Court ruled in favour of Xaris E......
  • New Zealand Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 51
    BMI View: New Zealand's power market is very well developed. Hydropower plants account for more than half of installed capacity and the country also makes extensive use of wind, geothermal and solar power. Thermal power is declining in importance as New Zealand phases out ageing coal-fired power plants and instead focuses new investment on the renewables sector. While New Zealand's renewable energy targets mean we do expect to see some growth in the sector over the coming......
  • Saudi Arabia Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 63
    BMI View: Low oil prices will constrain the Saudi government's spending, hampering efforts to diversify the power sector away from heavy reliance on oil-fired power generation over our 10-year forecast period. Attempts to increase non-hydropower renewable capacity will be muted due to fiscal pressures and stringent local content requirements, while we believe the government will focus on the well-developed thermal power sector instead. Latest Trends And Developments......
  • South Africa Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 75
    BMI View: Thermal power generation will continue to account for over 85.0% of total power output in South Africa over our 10-year forecast period due to the addition of just under 10GW of new coal-fired capacity. The highest growth in new capacity additions will come from non-hydropower renewables, forecast to grow at an annual average of 12.5%. New capacity coming online and the full commercial operation of the Ingula pumped-storage plant pending means the risk of load s......
  • Spain Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 66
    BMI View: Investment into new capacity for the Spanish power sector will be muted over our 10-year forecast period due to the lack of policy direction, as no government has been formed yet after two elections. Increases in thermal power generation will come from mothballed gas-fired capacity coming back online, while coal power will decline due to stringent EU emissions targets and a declining coalmining sector. Latest Updates And Structural Trends - Due to in......
  • Sudan and South Sudan Power Report Q4 2016
    Published: 19-Oct-2016        Price: US 1295 Onwards        Pages: 52
    BMI View: The Sudanese power sector will continue to be dominated by hydropower generation over our 10-year forecast period due to investment focus on constructing hydropower capacity on the Nile. High hydropower focus means Sudan will remain vulnerable to power cuts as a result of droughts, while lack of new capacity means power generation growth will stagnate after 2017. Political instability in South Sudan will weigh on investor sentiment. Latest Updates And Stru......
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