Global Nickel Metals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 79

BMI View: We have revised down our nickel price forecasts to reflect a rebalancing of the global market,

which will move into surplus from 2017 onwards. We now expect prices to have a muted recovery from

USD9,000/tonne in 2016 to USD10,200/tonne by 2020, as the surplus will narrow over the years. Prices

will be weaker than we previously expected due to a larger absolute fall in demand compared to the fall in

production.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

- Refined nickel prices will remain elevated on a three-month horizon, trading in the USD9,500-10,500/

tonne range. This is because of the fear that ore supplies from the Philippines will be severely constrained

as mine audits on the basis of environmental regulations is currently ongoing in the country, and will

conclude by the end of August 2020. While the nickel market is currently tight due to elevated Chinese

imports eroding global stockpiles, investor sentiment towards industrial metals will remain cautious as

Chinese economic data will continue to disappoint. By Q416, we expect weakening fundamentals in the

nickel market and a stabilisation of the Philippines mine crackdown to start to pull nickel prices towards

USD9,500/tonne and below.

- We revised down our nickel price forecasts from 2017 onwards as our outlook on global consumption

trends is now weaker than before, with the global nickel market moving into a surplus from 2017. Supply

trends remain unchanged, including our view that the partial relaxation of Indonesia's ore export ban and

Indonesian nickel pig iron smelters coming online by 2017 will prevent a supply-crunch in the refined

nickel market. We also maintain our view that there will be a price recovery, albeit more muted now, as

the surplus from 2017 will narrow over the years to 2020. We forecast an average of USD9,000/tonne

and USD9,500/tonne in 2016 and 2017, edging up to USD10,200/tonne by 2020.

Global Nickel Metals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: Global Nickel Forecasts 7
Price Forecast 10
Global - Nickel: Muted Price Recovery Ahead 10
Table: BMI Nickel Price Forecast 10
Table: Nickel Forecasts 17
Global Trends In Supply, Demand & Trade 18
Global - Nickel: Global Market To Remain In Deficit 18
Table: Global Nickel Forecasts 19
Table: Nickel Production Forecasts 22
Table: Nickel Consumption Forecasts 24
Mine Supply: Nickel Ore 27
Global - Nickel: Global Project Pipeline To Drive Growth 27
Table: Global Selected New Nickel Mine Projects 32
Competitive Landscape 35
Table: Global - Top 10 Nickel Producers By 2014 Output 35
Table: Selected Nickel Companies By Market Capitalisation 37
Company Profile 39
BHP Billiton - Q4 2016 39
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 41
Latest Financial Results 43
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data 46
Norilsk Nickel 47
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 49
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Projects 53
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 55
Global Company Strategy - Vale - Q4 2016 56
Company Overview 58
Company Strategy 59
Table: Select Companies - Operational Data 61
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 62
Global Company Strategy - Glencore 63
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts 65
Company Analysis 65
Table: Glencore - Key Projects 69
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data 71
Eramet - Q4 2016 72
Table: Eramet Financial Results (2009-2015) 75
Data Appendix 76
Appendix 76
Nickel: Production Balance 76
Table: Global Nickel Forecasts 77
Production Forecast 77
Table: Nickel Production Forecasts 77
Consumption Forecast 78
Table: Nickel Consumption Forecasts 78
Methodology 79
Cross Checks 79

List of Tables

Table: Global Nickel Forecasts
Table: BMI Nickel Price Forecast
Table: Nickel Forecasts
Table: Global Nickel Forecasts
Table: Nickel Production Forecasts
Table: Nickel Consumption Forecasts
Table: Global Selected New Nickel Mine Projects
Table: Global - Top 10 Nickel Producers By 2014 Output
Table: Selected Nickel Companies By Market Capitalisation
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Projects
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Companies - Operational Data
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Glencore - Key Projects
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data
Table: Eramet Financial Results (2009-2015)
Table: Global Nickel Forecasts
Table: Nickel Production Forecasts
Table: Nickel Consumption Forecasts
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