Global Lead Metals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 05-Oct-2016
No. of pages: 74

BMI View: Lead prices will gradually edge higher as the global lead market will shift into deficit by 2018

as production growth will slow over the coming years.

Price Forecast

We have revised up our lead price forecast for 2016 due to both positive investment sentiment and a

tightening of the market. We expect lead prices to average USD1,800/tonne in 2016, up from our previous

forecast of USD,1750/tonne. Meanwhile, we have slightly downgraded our forecast out to 2020, as we

expect a less-significant recovery in prices, going forward.

Market Balance

The global primary lead market will shift into deficit by 2018 on the back of persistent supply cuts. Mined

lead production will be hit by a global slowdown in mining capital expenditure, which will have a knock-on

effect on refined lead supply growth. We forecast consumption to exceed production by 11 thousand tonnes

(kt) in 2018, following a surplus of 27kt and 3kt in 2015 and 2016, respectively. As a result, the global

stocks-to-use ratio will peak in 2016 at 6.3% and edge lower in subsequent years, reaching 5.6% by 2020

Global Lead Metals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Table: BMI Lead Price Forecast 7
Table: Global Lead Forecasts 7
Latest Developments And Structural Trends 7
Price Forecast 9
Global - Lead: Shift Into Deficit To Support Prices 9
Table: BMI Lead Price Forecast 9
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 9
Long-Term Outlook 11
Global Trends In Supply, Demand & Trade 18
Lead: Tightening Market To Support Price Recovery 18
Table: Lead Market Forecast 19
Table: Lead Production Forecast 20
Table: Lead Consumption Forecast 23
Mine Supply: Lead 25
Global - Lead: Growth To Slow, But Peru A Relative Bright Spot 25
Table: Lead Mine Production Forecast 25
Table: Select Countries - Key Lead Mine Projects 30
Competitive Landscape 32
Global - Competitive Landscape To Be Dominated By Majors 32
Table: Select Lead Producers By Market Capitalisation 36
Company Profile 38
Global Company Strategy - Glencore 38
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts 40
Company Analysis 40
Table: Glencore - Key Projects 44
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data 46
Vedanta Resources - Q4 2016 47
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 49
Latest Financial Results 51
Company Strategy 52
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 54
Global Company Strategy - MMG Limited - Q4 2016 55
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 57
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data 61
Company Profile 62
Company Profile - Teck Resources - Q4 2016 67
Table: Teck Resources - Key Financial Data 69
Appendix 71
Data Appendix 71
Table: Lead Market Forecast 71
Table: Lead Production Forecast 71
Table: Lead Consumption Forecast 72
Methodology 74
Cross Checks 74

List of Tables

Table: BMI Lead Price Forecast
Table: Global Lead Forecasts
Table: BMI Lead Price Forecast
Table: Lead Market Forecast
Table: Lead Production Forecast
Table: Lead Consumption Forecast
Table: Lead Mine Production Forecast
Table: Select Countries - Key Lead Mine Projects
Table: Select Lead Producers By Market Capitalisation
Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Glencore - Key Projects
Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: MMG Limited - Key Financial Data
Table: Teck Resources - Key Financial Data
Table: Lead Market Forecast
Table: Lead Production Forecast
Table: Lead Consumption Forecast
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