Germany Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 21-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 75

BMI View: Germany's petrochemicals industry will be hit by the impact of Brexit due to its reliance on

export-oriented industries, particularly the automotive sector, as well as its role as a major petrochemicals

supplier in Europe. The sector was already seeing a downturn in sales volumes before the UK's vote to

leave the EU, suggesting existing weaknesses in the economy are likely to be exacerbated by the uncertainty

caused by Brexit. However, we expect that the effects will be short-lived and that a 'new normal' will arise

when uncertainty dissipates. German petrochemicals producers are in a stronger position than their peers

to weather the storm, and growth will rebound from 2017.

The German chemicals industry has witnessed a strong downturn in activity in recent months, indicating

that it was already under pressure before the surprise vote for Brexit in the UK. In H116, German

petrochemicals output declined by a marginal 0.2%, indicating the industry was in a period of stagnation.

However, with prices down 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), domestic chemicals sales fell 4.0% and chemicals

exports declined 3.5%,

The weak and volatile external demand picture is compounded by a longer-term trend of eroding export

competitiveness, which is starting to make itself felt in the country's key industrial sector. While Germany

remains relatively competitive compared with its eurozone peers, the economy has lost significant price

competitiveness against non-eurozone industrial economies since mid-2012. With the eurozone taking most

of Germany's chemicals exports, it will play a crucial role in the sector's performance. A positive outlook

earlier in the year eroded as doubts emerged over the sustainability of the recovery. On the upside, the

German chemicals and petrochemicals industries are in a better position to compete, both due to the

efficiency of production and the level of specialisation and added value.

? For 2016, BMI has downgraded its forecast for chemical output growth from 1.0% to 0.5%. However,

producer prices are anticipated to fall by 2.0% and sales will decline by a similar amount to EUR185bn.

? Germany will feel the impact of Brexit via weaker export growth and reduced private sector confidence

as European political and economic risks rise, and we have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts

for the country.

? Germany's domestic demand story will still remain robust, with household consumption and residential

construction growing strongly in the next few years, although the export-oriented automotive industry -

which relies on petrochemicals for a third of its raw materials - will suffer a downturn. As such, the risks

are balanced, even though there is some short-term uncertainty, and consequently we do not consider any

major reduction in petrochemicals capacity.

Germany Petrochemicals Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 14
Table: Germany Petrochemical Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Analysis 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 22
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 28
Germany Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 29
Market Overview 30
Industry Trends And Developments 34
Refining 36
Company Profile 41
BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BASF) 41
Table: BASF Annual Results (EURmn) 43
BP Refining And Petrochemicals GmbH 45
Table: BP Financial Results (USDmn) 46
Regional Overview 47
Europe Overview 47
Global Industry Overview 58
Demographic Forecast 65
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025) 66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025) 66
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025) 68
Glossary 70
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 70
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

List of Tables

Table: Germany Petrochemical Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100)
Table: BASF Annual Results (EURmn)
Table: BP Financial Results (USDmn)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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