Germany Metals Report Q4 2012

Germany’s metals sector will continue to feel the squeeze in the coming quarters as output prices remain
low and costs stay stubbornly high. We forecast subdued growth in consumption of key metals such as
steel, copper and aluminium, chiefly due to a weak outlook for economic activity in the country.
Moreover, ongoing political and economic malaise in the eurozone will ensure demand from the most
important export market remains muted.
Illustrative of challenges faced by the wider metals sector, steel mills will remain under significant
pressure, as low output prices squeeze margins. This will encourage consolidation of operations and
dampen output growth. We do not forecast steel production will return to growth until 2015 as low prices
will continue to bite. We forecast steel output of 41.7mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016, which would be 5.6%
below 2011 output and 13.9% below the 2007 peak level.
ThyssenKrupp is Germany’s largest steel maker, with a production capacity of around 16mn tonnes per
annum (mntpa). ArcelorMittal has a further 8.0mntpa capacity located at sites in Bremen, Duisburg,
Eisenhüttenstadt and Hamburg. Due to its proximity to Poland, the Eisenhüttenstadt steelworks exports
nearly half its output to Central and Eastern Europe. The other three ArcelorMittal facilities are reliant on
West European markets for their exports. Salzgitter AG is the third largest steelmaker with plants in
Salzgitter and Peine in the middle of the country.

Germany Metals Report Q4 2012

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Germany Business Environment SWOT 6
Industry Forecasts ... 7
Steel: Production Recovery A Long Way Off .. 7
Table: Germany - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .... 10
Table: Germany - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .... 10
Aluminium: Hard Times Ahead . 11
Table: Germany - Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .... 14
Copper: Production Stagnation, Imports To Grow . 14
Table: Germany - Refined Copper Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .. 19
Lead: Exporter Status To Persist ... 19
Table: Germany - Refined Lead Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . 23
Tin: Consumption To Stagnate.. 24
Table: Germany - Refined Tin Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) ... 26
Macroeconomic Outlook . 27
Falling Confidence To Hit Growth Hard . 27
Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 31
Commodities Forecast 32
Steel Price Forecast - Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013 .. 32
Table: Steel Forecast . 32
Table: Global Steel Forecasts ... 38
Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update.. 38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts . 52
Competitive Landscape ... 53
Table: Company Financial Data ... 54
Company Profiles ... 55
ArcelorMittal ... 55
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data .. 58
Norsk Hydro .... 59
Table: Norsk Aluminium - Key Financial Data . 62
ThyssenKrupp AG . 63
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data . 65
BMI Methodology ... 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 66
Cross Checks ... 66Table: Germany - Steel Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Steel Industry Historical Data (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Aluminium Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Refined Copper Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Refined Lead Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Refined Tin Production & Consumption (' tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Steel Forecast
Table: Global Steel Forecasts
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Table: Company Financial Data
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Table: Norsk Aluminium - Key Financial Data
Table: ThyssenKrupp - Key Financial Data

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