Consumer durables is a cataloguing of consumer goods that are not essential to be bought very often as they are fashioned in a way so as to last for an extended period of time. Profits in the consumer durables sector were most profoundly…
BMI View: Infrastructure development in Germany continues to face structural problems stemming from
eurozone realignment. Over the 10-year forecast period low growth is expected to prevail, with annual
average growth of 0.84% year-on-year (y-o-y) anticipated between 2012 and 2021. The value of the
construction industry will reach US$160.2bn by the end of this period, compared to a forecast of
US$132.4bn for 2012, with y-o-y growth of just 1.35%.
Key developments include:
Germany-based renewable energy developer Juwi concluded the installation of a 20MW
photovoltaic plant. The project, based at a former uranium mining site in the state of Thuringia,
would provide clean power to approximately 5,600 households. The nuclear age is now a thing
of the past and the future belongs to renewable energy, Thuringia's Minister for Trade and
Industry Matthias Machnig said. The decentralised expansion of renewable energy provides
great economic potential and enhances the local value chain.
The opening of the new Berlin-Brandenburg Airport was delayed until October 27 2013. This
represents a two-year delay from the originally scheduled date. The EUR4.2bn (US$5.38bn)
project will also cost EUR1.2bn (US$1.55bn) more than initially estimated. German airline Air
Berlin intends to use the new airport as an international hub. It will have an initial annual
handling capacity of 27mn passengers.
Dutch grid operator TenneT was expected to conclude the sale of its two German projects to
link offshore wind farms with the onshore network by end-2012. The operator is holding talks
with potential investors regarding future projects. TenneT is required to raise funds to construct
new power links as the country now relies more on renewable energy for generating power. The
grid operator expects to sign a deal for the sale of minority stakes in the SylWyn1 and DolWyn1
cables in Q412.
The political challenges facing Germany over the coming decade are not so much centred around public
policy as trying to foster economic growth in east Germany, managing population decline and dealing
with the potential implications of further EU integration. Overall, the political risk profile in Germany
remains among the best in the world.
On-going retrenchment in demand among euro-area economies and the prospect of a collapse in fixed
investment flows in the event of a eurozone 'exit' by a member state threaten the economic outlook.
Although a breakup of the single currency bloc is not our core view, we note that in the absence of a
decisive resolution to the crisis over the next 12-18 months, investment levels are set to suffer
substantially and both consumer and business confidence are likely to remain subdued, hitting domestic
demand. We therefore predict a 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Germany below the latest consensus