Germany Infrastructure Report Q1 2013

BMI View: Infrastructure development in Germany continues to face structural problems stemming from
eurozone realignment. Over the 10-year forecast period low growth is expected to prevail, with annual
average growth of 0.84% year-on-year (y-o-y) anticipated between 2012 and 2021. The value of the
construction industry will reach US$160.2bn by the end of this period, compared to a forecast of
US$132.4bn for 2012, with y-o-y growth of just 1.35%.
Key developments include:
? Germany-based renewable energy developer Juwi concluded the installation of a 20MW
photovoltaic plant. The project, based at a former uranium mining site in the state of Thuringia,
would provide clean power to approximately 5,600 households. The nuclear age is now a thing
of the past and the future belongs to renewable energy, Thuringia’s Minister for Trade and
Industry Matthias Machnig said. The decentralised expansion of renewable energy provides
great economic potential and enhances the local value chain.
? The opening of the new Berlin-Brandenburg Airport was delayed until October 27 2013. This
represents a two-year delay from the originally scheduled date. The EUR4.2bn (US$5.38bn)
project will also cost EUR1.2bn (US$1.55bn) more than initially estimated. German airline Air
Berlin intends to use the new airport as an international hub. It will have an initial annual
handling capacity of 27mn passengers.
? Dutch grid operator TenneT was expected to conclude the sale of its two German projects to
link offshore wind farms with the onshore network by end-2012. The operator is holding talks
with potential investors regarding future projects. TenneT is required to raise funds to construct
new power links as the country now relies more on renewable energy for generating power. The
grid operator expects to sign a deal for the sale of minority stakes in the SylWyn1 and DolWyn1
cables in Q412.
The political challenges facing Germany over the coming decade are not so much centred around public
policy as trying to foster economic growth in east Germany, managing population decline and dealing
with the potential implications of further EU integration. Overall, the political risk profile in Germany
remains among the best in the world.
On-going retrenchment in demand among euro-area economies and the prospect of a collapse in fixed
investment flows in the event of a eurozone ‘exit’ by a member state threaten the economic outlook.
Although a breakup of the single currency bloc is not our core view, we note that in the absence of a
decisive resolution to the crisis over the next 12-18 months, investment levels are set to suffer
substantially and both consumer and business confidence are likely to remain subdued, hitting domestic
demand. We therefore predict a 2012 real GDP growth forecast for Germany below the latest consensus
projections.

Germany Infrastructure Report Q1 2013

BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 6
Germany Infrastructure SWOT ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 7
Competitive Landscape .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Building Materials ........................................................................................................................................... 8
Europe ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Table: Cement Price / Volume, % Variance (6M11/6M12) ................................................................................................................................. 12
Cement Forecasts..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Germany Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 ......................................................................................................... 13
Table: Germany Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecast, 2014 - 2021 ................................................................................ 13
Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 14
Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 ..................................................................................................... 14
Table: Germany Construction And Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 .......................................................................................... 15
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario ................................................................................................................................................. 17
Transport Infrastructure............................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Germany Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016.................................................................................................................. 19
Table: Germany Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 ...................................................................................................... 21
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview ...................................................................................................................................................... 23
Major Projects Table - Transport ...................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Major Projects - Transport ..................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 27
Table: Germany Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2010-2016 ................................................................................................. 27
Table: Germany Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecast, 2015-2021 ....................................................................................... 28
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 30
Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities ........................................................................................................................................................... 32
Table: Major Projects - Energy And Utilities ..................................................................................................................................................... 32
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ...................................................... 35
Table: Germany Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2010-2016 ........................................................................................ 35
Table: Germany Residential and Non-residential Building Long Term Forecast, 2015-2021 ............................................................................. 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview .................................................................................................................................. 36
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure .................................................................................. 36
Table: Major Projects 0 Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure ............................................................................ 36
Risk/Reward Ratings .................................................................................................................................... 37
Germany's Risk/Reward Ratings.............................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Risks .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Regional Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Table: Developed States Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings .............................................................................................................................. 42
Company Monitor ......................................................................................................................................... 43
Hochtief .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
RWE .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Bilfinger Berger .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Global Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 49
Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 56
Industry Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Construction Industry ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Data Methodology .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors .................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Construction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Capital Investment .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Construction Sector Employment ........................................................................................................................................................................ 60
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating .......................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 61
Project Finance Ratings ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Table: Design And Construction Phase .............................................................................................................................................................. 63
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction.......................................................................................................... 64
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities .................................................................................................................. 65
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport .................................................................................................................................. 66
Sources..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating............................................................................................................................................................ 67
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators ...................................................................................................................................... 68BMI Industry View ........................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Ghana Mining Sector SWOT................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Ghana Business Environment SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Global Mining Outlook .................................................................................................................................... 8
Table: Recent Tax Increases ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Africa Mining Sector Outlook ........................................................................................................................ 15
Table: Recent Government Intervention ............................................................................................................................................................. 16
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 20
Mining Industry To Be Overshadowed By Oil .......................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Ghana - Mining Industry Value & Production ........................................................................................................................................ 22
Industry Forecasts ........................................................................................................................................ 23
Bauxite: Sector Feels Benefits Of Chinese Investment ............................................................................................................................................. 23
Table: Ghana - Bauxite Production ................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Gold: Newmont Expansion To Drive Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 25
Table: Ghana - Key Gold Projects ..................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Table: Ghana - Gold Production ....................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Regulatory Development ............................................................................................................................... 27
Africa Business Environment Ratings ......................................................................................................... 29
Table: African Government Intervention ............................................................................................................................................................ 29
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings .................................................................................................................................................... 30
Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................................ 35
Table: Comparative Metrics ............................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 37
AngloGold Ashanti .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data ............................................................................................................................................... 40
Newmont Mining ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Newmont Mining Key Financial Data ..................................................................................................................................................... 44
Gold Fields ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Gold Fields - Key Financial Data ........................................................................................................................................................... 47
Commodity Strategy ..................................................................................................................................... 48
Monthly Metals Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
Iron Ore: No Sustained Recovery ............................................................................................................................................................................ 50
Steel: Temporary Relief ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Aluminium: Respecting The Range .......................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak ........................................................................................................................................................ 55
Lead: Range-Trade Ahead ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Nickel: Gains To Falter ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Tin: Outperformance To Continue ........................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Zinc: Little Room For Optimism .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 61
Business Environment Ratings Methodology............................................................................................. 62
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators ................................................................................................................................................ 63
Table: Weighting Of Components ....................................................................................................................................................................... 64Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Greece Agriculture SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Greece Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Supply & Demand Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 9
Greece Grains Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Greece Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 .............................................................................................................................. 9
Table: Greece Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 .............................................................................................................................. 10
Table: Greece Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 ........................................................................................................................... 10
Table: Greece Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ............................................................................................................................ 11
Table: Greece Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .............................................................................................................................. 11
Table: Greece Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ........................................................................................................................... 12
Greece Dairy Outlook .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Table: Greece Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017.............................................................................................................................. 13
Table: Greece Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 ............................................................................................................................ 13
Table: Greece Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 .......................................................................................................................... 13
Table: Greece Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012.............................................................................................................................. 16
Table: Greece Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ............................................................................................................................ 16
Table: Greece Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .......................................................................................................................... 16
Greece Livestock Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Table: Greece Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 .......................................................................................................................... 17
Table: Greece Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 .............................................................................................................................. 17
Table: Greece Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 ................................................................................................................... 18
Table: Greece Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .......................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Greece Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 .............................................................................................................................. 19
Table: Greece Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ................................................................................................................... 19
Greece Sugar Outlook.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Table: Greece Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017 ............................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Greece Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 ............................................................................................................................ 22
Commodity Price Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 23
Monthly Softs Update ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Cocoa: Sufficient Supply ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Coffee: Temporary Rally..................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Cotton: Against Resistance ................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex ............................................................................................................................................... 28
Sugar: Surging Supply ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................... 32
Monthly Grains Update ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time ................................................................................................................................................................ 34
Corn: Looking The Weakest ................................................................................................................................................................................ 36
Soybean: Little Relief Ahead ............................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Rice: A Strong Performer ................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 40
Upstream Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 41
Europe Fertiliser Outlook ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Europe GM Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Europe Machinery Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
Downstream Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 54
Food......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
Food Consumption .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 .............................................................................................. 54
Canned Food ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017........................................................................................ 56
Confectionery...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ....................................................................................... 57
Pasta ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ............................................................................ 59
Meat .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ............................................................................. 60
Frozen Food ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ........................................... 61
Baked Goods ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
Table: Baked Goods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ................................................................ 62
Other Processed Foods ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
Table: Jams And Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2017 ........................................................... 64
Drink ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 65
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