Gabon Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Publisher Name :
Date: 14-Sep-2016
No. of pages: 31

BMI View: We forecast Gabon's construction industry to recover from the recession it entered in 2014 to

record moderate growth in 2016 and throughout our 10-year forecast period. Support for projects will stem

from international financial institutions and funding flows from China, though we highlight that a wide

fiscal deficit and lack of substantial foreign direct investment will hinder the government's plan to tackle its

infrastructure deficit and diversify its economy away from oil exports.

Forecast & Industry Developments

? We have adjusted our outlook for Gabon's construction industry following new historic data showing a

contraction of 4.5% in real terms in 2014. We now estimate the industry contracted by 1% in 2015 as oil

headwinds continue to weigh on government revenues. BMI forecasts growth to return to positive

territory in 2016, recording 4.5% real growth and expect it to continue to expand over our 10-year

forecast period.

? Between 2016 and 2020 we project annual average growth of 4.7% in real terms as projects in the

transport and power sectors enter construction, supported by loan agreements from international financial

institutions and China.

? We have maintained our outlook for the second half of our forecast period between 2021 and 2025,

projecting annual average growth of 6% in real terms over this period as the improved commodities

outlook eases fiscal pressure and enables the government to funnel expenditure into infrastructure

development.

? The government is actively courting Chinese involvement in its infrastructure sector and has eased

regulations for South African businesses travelling to Gabon in order to encourage them to invest in the

country.

Gabon Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Gabon 2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Gabon 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 8
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 8
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Gabon 2016-2025) 8
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 13
Gabon - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 13
Rewards 13
Risks 14
SSA Infrastructure RRI: Volatile Markets Highlight Regional Risks 15
Table: SSA RRI 23
Methodology 24
Industry Forecast Methodology 24
Sector-Specific Methodology 25
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 29
Sector-Specific Methodology 30
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 30
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 31

List of Tables

Table: Five-Year Forecast Scenario (Gabon 2016-2020)
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Gabon 2016)
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Gabon 2016-2025)
Table: SSA RRI
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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