Future of the UAE Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017

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Date: 23-Feb-2013
No. of pages: 104
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Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the UAE defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Future of the UAE Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the UAE defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

The UAE defense expenditure increased at a CAGR of 3.4% during the review period and valued US$9.3 billion in 2012. The modernization initiatives of the UAE are reflected in the growth of its defense budget over the review period. The multitude of deals signed with foreign OEMs at its biennial international defense expositions proves the attractiveness of the UAE’s defense market. With substantial financial resources, minimal indigenous defense capabilities and a growing threat from Iran’s advances in ballistic missile technology, the UAE is investing heavily in defense, with a particular focus on fighter jets, anti-missile systems and homeland security. The country is expected to spend US$52.5 billion on defense during the forecast period.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

The UAE’s defense expenditure is primarily driven by its focus on the protection of critical infrastructure, its territorial dispute with Iran, and its peacekeeping initiatives in the Gulf. Oil and gas industries contribute a third of the country’s GDP, making it of the highest priority for the UAE to protect its reserves which in turn are expected to drive the demand for homeland security systems in the forecast period, such as border patrol and surveillance systems.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Future of the UAE Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2013 to 2017, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the UAE defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in the UAE. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • The ability to comply with the UAE’s stringent offset requirements is one of the key challenges faced by foreign OEMs. The offset obligation, which can be the equivalent of to up to 60% of the contract value, must be invested in the form of a profitable and sustainable non-oil related joint venture in which the foreign OEM can own a maximum of 49%. However, to minimize the difficulties faced by foreign OEMs, the UAE has established Abu Dhabi Investment Company (ADIC), which facilitates offset participation.
  • The UAE’s preference for the transfer of technology as part of defense deals poses another significant challenge to foreign OEMs wishing to enter the market. To enhance its indigenous capabilities, the UAE often requests external firms to share proprietary information with domestic defense firms. Although a small number of OEMs that complied with these requests, the majority of firms remain reluctant to share this information, especially as these companies are not permitted to hold a majority share in the joint venture.

Key Highlights

  • The UAE’s defense expenditure is primarily driven by its focus on the protection of critical infrastructure, its territorial dispute with Iran and its peacekeeping initiatives in the Gulf. In order to ensure the protection of the country’s most important infrastructures, the UAE has established the Critical National Infrastructure Authority (CNIA), which is forecast to spend approximately US$11 billion by 2021 in order to achieve this goal. In addition, the UAE fears that issues over the territorial claim on the Strait of Hormuz could lead to attacks from Iran. This fear led the country to increase its defense procurement. With limited indigenous capabilities, the UAE was actively importing fighter jets and anti-missile systems in the review period, and this procurement is expected to continue during the forecast period. Furthermore, the active participation of the country in international peacekeeping missions is also expected to drive defense expenditure during the forecast period. Since 2007, the UAE has committed its military forces to international peacekeeping missions, with a particular focus on the Middle East. The UAE has also participated in peacekeeping operations in Somalia, Lebanon and Kosovo, where it is assisting in de-mining initiatives.
  • During 2007-2011, the UAE’s defense imports primarily comprised aircraft, which held a share of 60% of the country’s total defense imports. Other major categories of defense imports include missiles, air defense systems, sensors and ships. In 2011, the share of aircraft in UAE defense imports increased to 61% with missiles, air defense systems, sensors and ships accounting for 36%. This was the result of the government’s military modernization program, which aims to improve the country’s air defense capabilities.
  • During the review period, the UAE experienced rapid development in its infrastructure in both the public and private sectors, a development that increased the country’s already significant expatriate population to 80% of the total population. An increased focus on the protection of corporate employees, combined with the UAE’s commitment towards homeland security, is expected to stimulate significant growth in the market over the forecast period. Additionally, defense agencies are in the process of procuring identification and access control equipment, perimeter security, monitoring and control devices, video monitors, CCTV cameras, warning and signaling devices, personal protection devices and accessories, armored and emergency response vehicles, and checking, searching and investigation equipment, including x-ray inspection equipment. Therefore, the market opportunities in this sector are expected to attract foreign security consultants, system integrators and security equipment suppliers.

Future of the UAE Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2017

Table Of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. The defense budget of the UAE recorded a CAGR of XX% over the review period
3.1.2. Protection of critical infrastructure, territorial dispute with Iran and peace keeping initiatives to drive defense expenditure
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.2. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.3. Revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of XX% over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. UAE homeland security is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Investment in the protection of infrastructure and expatriates is expected to drive the UAE homeland security market
3.3.3. Critical National Infrastructure Authority to drive homeland security procurement in the UAE
3.3.4. SDI Terrorism Index considers the UAE a "some risk" region
3.3.5. UAE faces minimal threat from terrorists
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. UAE's defense budget expected to register rapid growth over the forecast period
3.4.2. UAE set to continue its high defense expenditure
3.4.3. UAE spent over XX% of its GDP on defense in 2012
3.4.4. UAE faces "some risk" from acts of terrorism
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. UAE to invest heavily in missile defense systems
3.5.2. UAE seeks long-term solution to Airborne Early Warning and Control capability
3.5.3. Drive to enhance UAE's air capability to result in upgrade of helicopter fleet
3.5.4. UAE domestically developing unmanned aerial vehicles technology
3.5.5. Demand for satellite communication and homeland security to drive command, control and communication market
3.5.6. Demand for surface combatants expected to increase over the forecast period
3.5.7. Demand for helicopters, infantry-fighting vehicles and MRAP to increase
3.6. Key Procurements and Market Size
3.6.1. Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft:
3.6.2. Infrastructure:
3.6.3. Cyber Security:
3.6.4. Attack Helicopters:
3.6.5. Missile Defense Systems:

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limitations of the domestic defense industry to encourage arms imports
4.1.2. Over the review period, the UAE was the world's fourth-largest arms importer
4.1.3. Aircraft account for the majority of the UAE's defense imports
4.1.4. US to continue to be major arms suppliers to the UAE
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. The UAE has minimal defense exports

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium to high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: low to medium

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Defense deals are settled through direct negotiation or competitive bidding
6.1.2. Foreign OEMs prefer indirect offsets to meet the obligations associated with defense deals
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Foreign OEMs use proxy representatives to enter the market
6.2.2. Defense expositions hosted by the UAE serve as an entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Complying with the UAE's stringent offset requirements a concern for OEMs
6.3.2. UAE demands technology transfer in defense deals

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive landscape Overview
7.1.1. A diverse range of foreign OEMs dominate the UAE defense sector
7.1.2. Indigenous ship building drives domestic market growth
7.2. Key Foreign Companies
7.2.1. Lockheed Martin - overview
7.2.2. Lockheed Martin - Major Products and Services
7.2.3. Lockheed Martin - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Lockheed Martin - alliances
7.2.5. Lockheed Martin - recent contract wins
7.2.6. BAE Systems Plc. - overview
7.2.7. BAE Systems Plc. - Major Products and Services
7.2.8. BAE Systems Plc. - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.9. BAE Systems Plc. - alliances
7.2.10. BAE Systems Plc. - recent contract wins
7.2.11. Raytheon Company - overview
7.2.12. Raytheon Company - Major Products and Services
7.2.13. Raytheon Company - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.14. Raytheon Company - alliances
7.2.15. Raytheon Company - recent contract wins
7.2.16. Rolls-Royce Plc. - overview
7.2.17. Rolls-Royce Plc. - Major Products and Services
7.2.18. Rolls-Royce Plc. - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.19. Rolls-Royce Plc. - alliances
7.2.20. Rolls-Royce Plc. - recent contract wins
7.2.21. Northrop Grumman Corporation - overview
7.2.22. Northrop Grumman Corporation - Major Products and Services
7.2.23. Northrop Grumman Corporation - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.24. Northrop Grumman Corporation - alliances
7.2.25. Thales - overview
7.2.26. Thales - Major Products and Services
7.2.27. Thales - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.28. Thales - alliances
7.2.29. Thales - recent contract wins
7.2.30. The Boeing Company - overview
7.2.31. The Boeing Company - Major Products and Services
7.2.32. The Boeing Company - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.33. The Boeing Company - alliances
7.2.34. The Boeing Company - recent contract wins
7.3. Key Public Sector Companies
7.3.1. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - overview
7.3.2. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Major Products and Services
7.3.3. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.4. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - alliances
7.3.5. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - recent contract wins
7.3.6. Abu Dhabi Ship Building - financial analysis
7.3.7. Gulf Logistics and Naval Support - overview
7.3.8. Gulf Logistics and Naval Support - Major Products and Services
7.3.9. Gulf Logistics and Naval Support - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.10. Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - overview
7.3.11. Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - Major Products and Services
7.3.12. Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.3.13. Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - alliances

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices
8.2.5. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
8.2.7. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar
8.2.8. Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.9. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
8.2.10. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.11. International reserves, including gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.5. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.6. UAE Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Overall Construction (US$ Million)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Bn)
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Patents Granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List Of Tables

Table 1: UAE Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Table 2: UAE Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Table 3: UAE Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Table 4: UAE Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Table 5: UAE GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Table 6: UAE GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Table 7: UAE Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Table 8: UAE Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Table 9: UAE Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Table 10: UAE Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Table 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Table 12: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 13: UAE - Offset Guidelines and Agreements
Table 14: Key Foreign Players and Operations in the UAE Defense Sector
Table 15: Lockheed Martin - Major Products and Services
Table 16: Lockheed Martin - Alliances
Table 17: Lockheed Martin - recent contract wins
Table 18: BAE Systems Plc. - Major Products and Services
Table 19: BAE Systems Plc. - Alliances
Table 20: BAE Systems Plc. - recent contract wins
Table 21: Raytheon Company - Major Products and Services
Table 22: Raytheon Company - Alliances
Table 23: Raytheon Company - recent contract wins
Table 24: Rolls-Royce Plc. - Major Products and Services
Table 25: Rolls-Royce Plc. - Alliances
Table 26: Rolls-Royce Plc. - recent contract wins
Table 27: Northrop Grumman Corporation - Major Products and Services
Table 28: Northrop Grumman Corporation - Alliances
Table 29: Thales - Major Products and Services
Table 30: Thales - Alliances
Table 31: Thales - recent contract wins
Table 32: The Boeing Company - Major Products and Services
Table 33: The Boeing Company - Alliances
Table 34: The Boeing Company - recent contract wins
Table 35: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Major Products and Services
Table 36: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Alliances
Table 37: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - recent contract wins
Table 38: Gulf Logistics and Naval Support - Major Products and Services
Table 39: Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - Major Products and Services
Table 40: Abu Dhabi Systems Integration - alliances

List Of Figures

Figure 1: UAE Defense Expenditure, 2008-2012
Figure 2: UAE Defense Expenditure, 2013-2017
Figure 3: UAE Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008-2012
Figure 4: UAE Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013-2017
Figure 5: UAE GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008-2012
Figure 6: UAE GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013-2017
Figure 7: UAE Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2008-2012
Figure 8: UAE Revenue Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2013-2017
Figure 9: UAE Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2008-2012
Figure 10: UAE Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2013-2017
Figure 11: SDI Terrorism Heat Map
Figure 12: SDI Terrorism Heat Index, 2012
Figure 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2008-2012 vs. 2013-2017
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2012 and 2017
Figure 15: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2012
Figure 16: UAE's Fighters and Multi-role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 17: UAE Infrastructure Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 18: UAE Cyber Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 19: UAE's Attack Helicopters Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 20: UAE Missile Defense Systems Market Size (US$ Million), 2012-2022
Figure 21: UAE Defense imports TIV value (US$ Million), 2007-2011
Figure 22: UAE Defense Imports by Category (%), 2007-2011 (TIV values)
Figure 23: UAE Defense Imports by Region (%), 2007-2011
Figure 24: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 25: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Revenue Trend Analysis (AED Million), 2007-2011
Figure 26: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Operating Profit (AED Million), 2007-2011
Figure 27: Abu Dhabi Ship Building - Net Profit Trend Analysis (AED Million), 2007-2011
Figure 28: UAE Rural Population (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 29: UAE Urban Population (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 30: UAE GDP Per Capita, 2008-2017
Figure 31: UAE GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), 2008-2017
Figure 32: UAE Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001- 2010
Figure 33: UAE Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ Billion), 2001- 2010
Figure 34: UAE Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 35: UAE Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017
Figure 36: Local Currency Unit per US$ - Exchange Rate , 2008-2017
Figure 37: Local Currency Unit per Euro, 2008-2017
Figure 38: UAE Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 39: UAE Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2002-2011
Figure 40: UAE's International reserves, including gold (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 41: UAE Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 42: UAE Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 43: UAE Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatt hours), 2001-2010
Figure 44: UAE's Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2002-2011
Figure 45: UAE's Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 46: UAE's Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2002-2011
Figure 47: UAE's Overall Construction (US$ Million), 2007-2016
Figure 48: UAE's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2001-2010
Figure 49: UAE Patents Granted, 2002-2011
Figure 50: UAE's Telephone Lines (In Million), 2001-2010
Figure 51: UAE's Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2002-2011

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