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Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Date: 08-Mar-2018
No. of pages: 77
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Summary

The Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2022, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

This report offers detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -


  • The Turkish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns

  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country

  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years

  • Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years

  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Turkish defense industry.


Scope


  • Turkish defense expenditure stands at US$10.7 billion in 2018, and registered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.94% during the historic period.

  • The country’s strained relationship with Greece, persistent threats from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), active participation in peacekeeping missions, and the reduction in foreign dependency for military equipment procurement, drove defense expenditure during the historic period.

  • With this trend expected to continue, expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 8.36% over the forecast period to value US$15.8 billion in 2023.

  • As a percentage of GDP, the country’s defense expenditure will average 1.36% over the forecast period, which is marginally declining compared to an average of 1.44% recorded during the historic period.


Reasons to buy


  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry market trends for the coming five years

  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period

  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers.This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector

  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Turkish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers,Key Trends,and latest industry contracts


Companies Mentioned


  • Lockheed Martin

  • Lockheed Sikorsky

  • Construcciones Aeronáuticas SA (CASA)/ IPTN

  • Korean Aerospace Industries

  • Boeing (McDonnell Douglas)

  • Samsung Techwin

  • Hyundai Rotem

  • Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW)- Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems

  • BAE

  • General Atomics Aeronautical Systems

  • Otokar

  • Roketsan

  • Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK)

  • Aselsan

  • Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Havelsan

  • Tusas Engine Industries (TEI)

  • FNSS Defense

  • Systems Company

  • Istanbul Shipyard

Future of the Turkish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 7
1.1. What is this Report About? 7
1.2. Definitions 7
1.3. Summary Methodology 9
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 10

2. Executive Summary 11

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 13
3.1. Current Market Conditions 14
3.1.1. Military fleet size 14
3.1.2. Procurement Programs 18
3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 19
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 21
3.2.1. Turkey defense expenditure expected to grow during the forecast period 21
3.2.2. Turkey’s strained relationship with Greece, increasing security threat from PKK and active involvement in peacekeeping missions to drive the defense industry 23
3.2.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline over the forecast period 24
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 27
3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period 27
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period 29
3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period 31
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 33
3.4.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow over the forecast period 33
3.4.2. Threats driving homeland security expenditure 35
3.4.3. Turkey faces a high level of terrorist threat 36
3.4.4. Turkey faces high level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 37
3.4.5. Turkey has a terrorism index score of 7.5 39
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 40
3.5.1. Turkish defense expenditure expected to remain low compared to leading spenders 40
3.5.2. The country’s defense budget is high compared to its regional countries 42
3.5.3. Turkey defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease 43
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends 44
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 44

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 45
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 46
4.1.1. Defense imports expected to decrease over the forecast period 46
4.1.2. The US was the primary supplier of arms to Turkey 47
4.1.3. Aircraft were the major imported military hardware during 2012-2016 48
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 49
4.2.1. Turkey aims to increase defense exports over the forecast period 49
4.2.2. Turkmenistan emerged as the largest importer of Turkish defense equipment during the period 2012-2016 50
4.2.3. Naval vessels accounted for the majority of defense exports during 2012-2016 51

5. Industry Dynamics 52
5.1. Market Regulation 52
5.1.1. The Turkish government encourages offsets to develop the country’s domestic industrial defense base 52
5.2. Market Entry Route 54
5.2.1. Budgeting Process 54
5.2.2. Procurement policy and process 56
5.2.3. Joint venture provides market entry opportunity for foreign OEMs 57
5.2.4. Joint research and development programs provide foreign OEMs with an opportunity for market entry 58

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 59
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 59

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 61
7.1. Economic Performance 61
7.1.1. GDP per capita 61
7.1.2. GDP, current prices 62
7.1.3. Export of goods and services (LCU Billion) 63
7.1.4. Import of goods and services (LCU Billion) 64
7.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ Billion) 65
7.1.6. Local currency unit per US$ 66
7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies 67
7.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP 68
7.1.9. Government cash surplus deficit as a percentage of GDP 69
7.1.10. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP 70
7.1.11. Good imports as a percentage of GDP 71
7.1.12. Service imports as a percentage of GDP 72
7.1.13. Service exports as a percentage of GDP 73
7.1.14. Foreign direct investments 74
7.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 75
7.1.16. Mining, manufacturing, utilities output 76

8. Appendix 77
8.1. About SDI 77
8.2. Disclaimer 77

List of Tables

Table 1: Turkey - Army Strength 14
Table 2: Turkey - Navy Strength 16
Table 3: Turkey - Air Force Strength 17
Table 4: Turkey - Ongoing Procurement Programs 18
Table 5: Turkish Future Procurement Programs 19
Table 6: Turkey - Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 22
Table 7: Turkey - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 25
Table 8: Turkey - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 27
Table 9: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 29
Table 10: Turkey - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 31
Table 11: Turkey - Homeland Security Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2014-2023 33
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018 37
Table 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 40
Table 14: Top 10 Turkey Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 44
Table 15: Turkey - Offset Regulations (%) 52
Table 16: Turkey - Technological Cooperation, Investment, and R&D Multiplier Provision 53
Table 17: Multipliers for Export Related Systems 53
Table 18: Turkey - Budget Formation Timetable 54
Table 19: Turkey - Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 57
Table 20: Turkey - Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies 58
Table 21: Turkey - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018 59

List of Figures

Figure 1: Turkey - Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2014-2023 22
Figure 2: Turkish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 23
Figure 3: Turkey - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 25
Figure 4:Turkey - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 28
Figure 5: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2014-2023 30
Figure 6: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 30
Figure 7: Turkish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 32
Figure 8: Turkey - Homeland Security Budget (TRY Billion), 2014-2023 34
Figure 9: Turkish Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 34
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 36
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 39
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023 41
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 42
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 43
Figure 15: Turkey - Defense Imports Trend (US$ Million), 2012-2016 46
Figure 16: Turkey - Defense Imports by Country (%), 2012-2016 47
Figure 17: Turkey - Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 48
Figure 18: Turkey - Defense Exports Trend, 2012-2016 49
Figure 19: Turkey - Defense Exports by Country (US$ Million), 2012-2016 50
Figure 20: Turkey - Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 51
Figure 21: Turkey - GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025 61
Figure 22: Turkey - GDP Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 62
Figure 23: Turkey - Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 63
Figure 24: Turkey - Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 64
Figure 25: Turkey - Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 65
Figure 26: Turkey - LCU per US$, 2015-2024 66
Figure 27: Turkey - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 67
Figure 28: Turkey - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP), 2005-2012 68
Figure 29: Turkey - Cash Surplus Deficit as (Percentage of GDP), 2008-2012 69
Figure 30: Turkey - Good Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 70
Figure 31: Turkey - Good Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 71
Figure 32: Turkey - Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 72
Figure 33: Turkey - Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 73
Figure 34: Turkey - Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 74
Figure 35: Turkey - Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 75
Figure 36: Turkey - Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 76

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