Future of the Polish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Future of the Polish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents
1. Introduction 10
1.1. What is this Report About? 10
1.2. Definitions 10
1.3. Summary Methodology 12
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 14
2. Executive Summary 15
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 17
3.1. Current Market Scenario 18
3.1.1. Primary threat perception 18
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy 19
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size 22
3.1.4. Procurement Programs 26
Ongoing procurement programs 26
Future procurement programs 28
Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 29
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects 30
3.1.6. Political & Strategic Alliances 31
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 32
3.2.1. Polish defense expenditure is expected to reach US$16.8 billion by 2023 32
3.2.2. The Ukrainian crisis, military modernization initiatives and peacekeeping missions to fuel defense expenditure over the forecast period 34
3.2.3. Polish defense budget to be at 2.5% of GDP over 2018-2022 36
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 38
3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period 38
3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 6.09% over 2018-2022 40
3.3.3. The majority of the defense budget is allocated to military intelligence services and crisis response operations, which are anticipated to increase over the forecast period 43
3.3.4. ‘Others' segment to continue accounting for the largest share of the Polish defense budget 45
3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 49
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 51
3.4.1. Polish homeland security market to increase at a CAGR of 2.06% over the forecast period 51
3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure to be triggered by the country's efforts to counter drug smuggling, human trafficking, and cyber attacks 53
3.4.3. Poland faces no known threat from terrorist organizations 54
3.4.4. Poland faces low level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations 55
3.4.5. Poland has a terrorism index score of "0.4" 57
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 58
3.5.1. Poland's defense growth rate is expected to remain modest over the forecast period 58
3.5.2. Poland's defense spending is low compared to other European nations 60
3.5.3. Poland allocates a moderate share of GDP for defense expenditure 61
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators 62
3.6.1. Top Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 62
3.6.2. C4ISR-Land Based 63
3.6.3. Missile Defense System 64
3.6.4. Multirole Aircraft 65
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 66
4.1. Import Dynamics 68
4.1.1. Defense imports fluctuated during the period 2012-2016 68
4.1.2. Poland sourced the majority of its arms imports from Finland 69
4.1.3. Missiles and armored vehicles are the major military hardware imports 70
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 71
4.2.1. Polish defense exports expected to increase over the forecast period 71
4.2.2. Poland exports the majority of its defense goods to the US 72
4.2.3. Aircraft and armored vehicles constitute the majority of Polish defense exports 73
5. Industry Dynamics 74
5.1. Five Forces Analysis 74
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium 75
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium 75
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium 75
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high 75
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high 76
6. Market Entry Strategy 77
6.1. Market Regulation 77
6.1.1. Polish government introduces new Offset Act for defense equipment procurements 77
6.2. Market Entry Route 78
6.2.1. Budgeting Process 78
6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process 80
6.2.3. Joint ventures and acquisitions of domestic companies are the preferred entry routes 81
6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs 82
6.3. Key Challenges 83
6.3.1. Dominance of EU defense companies impede the progress of non-European firms 83
6.3.2. Lack of transparency in the public procurement process proves a major challenge 83
7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights 84
7.1. Competitive landscape Overview 84
7.2. Key Foreign Companies 87
7.2.1. BAE Systems: overview 87
7.2.2. BAE Systems: main products and services 87
7.2.3. BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 87
7.2.4. BAE Systems: alliances 90
7.2.5. BAE Systems: recent contract wins 90
7.2.6. BAE Systems: financial analysis 92
7.2.7. The Boeing Company: overview 94
7.2.8. The Boeing Company: main products 94
7.2.9. The Boeing Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 94
7.2.10. The Boeing Company: alliances 95
7.2.11. Boeing: financial analysis 96
7.2.12. Lockheed Martin: overview 98
7.2.13. Lockheed Martin: main products and services 98
7.2.14. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 98
7.2.15. Lockheed Martin: alliances 99
7.2.16. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins 99
7.2.17. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis 100
7.2.18. CAE: overview 102
7.2.19. CAE: main products and services 102
7.2.20. CAE Inc.: alliances 103
7.2.21. CAE Inc.: recent contract wins 103
7.2.22. CAE Inc.: financial analysis 104
7.2.23. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: overview 106
7.2.24. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: main products and services 106
7.2.25. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 106
7.2.26. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: alliances 107
7.2.27. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins 107
7.2.28. Leonardo S.p.A.: overview 108
7.2.29. Leonardo S.p.A.: main products and services 108
7.2.30. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 109
7.2.31. Leonardo S.p.A.: alliances 109
7.2.32. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent contract wins 110
7.2.33. Leonardo S.p.A.: financial analysis 111
7.3. Key Public Companies 113
7.3.1. Polish Defense Holding: overview 113
7.3.2. Polish Defense Holding: main products 113
7.3.3. Polish Defense Holding: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 115
7.3.4. Polish Defense Holding: alliances 115
7.3.5. Polish Defense Holding: recent contract wins 116
7.3.6. PZL Mielec: overview 118
7.3.7. PZL Mielec: products 118
7.3.8. PZL Mielec: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 118
7.3.9. PZL Mielec: alliances 119
7.3.10. PZL Mielec: recent contract wins 119
7.3.11. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: overview 120
7.3.12. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: main products and services 120
7.3.13. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 120
7.3.14. Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA: alliances 121
7.3.15. Huta Stalowa Wola: overview 122
7.3.16. Huta Stalowa Wola: main products and services 122
7.3.17. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 122
7.3.18. Huta Stalowa Wola: alliances 123
7.3.19. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent contract wins 123
7.3.20. ROSOMAK S.A.: overview 124
7.3.21. ROSOMAK S.A.: main products and services 124
7.3.22. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives 124
7.3.23. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent contract wins 125
8. Business Environment and Country Risk 126
8.1. Economic Performance 126
8.1.1. GDP Per Capita 126
8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices 127
8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices 128
8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices 129
8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Billion) 130
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar 131
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 132
8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies a percentage of GDP 133
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP 134
8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 135
8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP 136
8.1.12. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP 137
8.1.13. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP 138
8.1.14. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 139
8.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP 140
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 141
9. Appendix 142
9.1. About SDI 142
9.2. Disclaimer 142

List of Tables
Table 1: Polish Land Forces Strength 22
Table 2: Polish Navy Strength 24
Table 3: Polish Air Force Strength 25
Table 4: Polish Ongoing Procurement Programs 26
Table 5: Polish Future Procurement Programs 28
Table 6: Top Polish Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 29
Table 7: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Table 8: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 36
Table 9: Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2014-2023 38
Table 10: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 41
Table 11: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2014-2023 43
Table 12: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 45
Table 13: Polish Defense Budget in US$ Million - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 47
Table 14: Polish Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 49
Table 15: Polish Homeland Security Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 51
Table 16: Terrorism Index, 2018 55
Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets: 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 58
Table 18: Top Polish Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 62
Table 19: Polish Budget Formation Timetable: 78
Table 20: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies 81
Table 21: Top Defense Suppliers in Polish Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2018-2023 84
Table 22: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry 85
Table 23: BAE Systems, Main Products 87
Table 24: BAE Systems, Alliances 90
Table 25: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins 90
Table 26: The Boeing Company, Main Products 94
Table 27: The Boeing Company, Alliances 95
Table 28: Lockheed Martin, Main Products 98
Table 29: Lockheed Martin, Alliances 99
Table 30: Lockheed Martin, Recent Contract Wins 99
Table 31: CAE, Main Products and Services 102
Table 32: CAE Inc., Alliances 103
Table 33: CAE, recent contract wins 103
Table 34: Sikorsky, a Lockheed martin Company Main Products and Services 106
Table 35: Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company Alliances 107
Table 36:Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins 107
Table 37: Leonardo S.p.A., Main Products and Services 108
Table 38: Leonardo S.p.A., Alliances 109
Table 39: Leonardo S.p.A., Recent Contract Wins 110
Table 40: Polish Defense Holding, Major Products 113
Table 41: Polish Defense Holding, Alliances 115
Table 42: Polish Defense Holding, Recent Contract Wins 116
Table 43: PZL Mielec - Main Products 118
Table 44: PZL Mielec, Alliances 119
Table 45: PZL Mielec, Recent Contract Wins 119
Table 46: Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA, Main Products and Services 120
Table 47: Wojskowe Zak?ady Uzbrojenia SA, Alliances 121
Table 48: Huta Stalowa Wola, Main Products and Services 122
Table 49: Huta Stalowa Wola, Alliances 123
Table 50: Huta Stalowa Wola, Recent Contract Wins 123
Table 51: ROSOMAK S.A.: Main Products and Services 124
Table 52: ROSOMAK SA., Recent Contract Wins 125

List of Figures
Figure 1: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 2: Polish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 33
Figure 3: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023 37
Figure 4:Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2014-2023 39
Figure 5: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 41
Figure 6: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 42
Figure 7: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2014-2023 44
Figure 8: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 46
Figure 9: Polish Defense Budget in US$ Million - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2014-2023 48
Figure 10: Poland Per Capita Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 50
Figure 11: Polish Homeland Security Budget (PLN Billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 12: Polish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014-2023 52
Figure 13: Terrorism Heat Map 54
Figure 14: Terrorism Index, 2018 57
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 59
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 60
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 61
Figure 18: Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 63
Figure 19: Missile Defense System Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 64
Figure 20: Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023 65
Figure 21: Polish Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships 67
Figure 22: Polish Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2012-2016 68
Figure 23: Polish Defense Imports by Country (%),2012-2016 69
Figure 24: Polish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2012-2016 70
Figure 25: Polish Defense Exports by Value (US$ Million), 2012-2016 71
Figure 26: Polish Defense Exports by Country (%), 2012-2016 72
Figure 27: Polish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2012-2016 73
Figure 28: Industry Dynamics: Porter's Five Forces Analysis 74
Figure 29: BAE Systems - Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 92
Figure 30: BAE Systems - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 93
Figure 31: BAE Systems - Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion), 2012-2016 93
Figure 32: Boeing - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 96
Figure 33: Boeing - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 97
Figure 34: Boeing - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2012-2016 97
Figure 35: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017 100
Figure 36: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017 101
Figure 37: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017 101
Figure 38: CAE Inc. - Revenue Trend Analysis (CAD Billion), 2013-2017 104
Figure 39: CAE Inc. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2013-2017 105
Figure 40: CAE Inc.- Net Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2013-2017 105
Figure 41: Leonardo S.p.A. - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2013-2017 111
Figure 42: Leonardo S.p.A.- Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 112
Figure 43: Leonardo S.p.A.Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017 112
Figure 44: Polish GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025 126
Figure 45: Polish GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), 2015-2025 127
Figure 46: Polish Exports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 128
Figure 47: Polish Imports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014 129
Figure 48: Polish Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005- 2012 130
Figure 49: Local Currency Unit per US$- Exchange Rate , 2015-2024 131
Figure 50: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 132
Figure 51: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 133
Figure 52: Polish Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012 134
Figure 53: Poland's Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 135
Figure 54: Poland's Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 136
Figure 55: Poland's Service Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013 137
Figure 56: Poland's Service Exports as % of GDP, 2005-2013 138
Figure 57: Poland's Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013 139
Figure 58: Poland's Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013 140
Figure 59: Poland's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 141

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