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Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

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Date: 03-May-2018
No. of pages: 70
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Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

The Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023, published by Strategic Defence Intelligence, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
- The Kenyan defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
- Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
- Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
- Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
- Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Kenyan defense industry.

Scope

- With an armed force that is considered to be one of the most powerful in East Africa, Kenya has consistently procured a large amount of military hardware, including small arms, aircraft, artilleries and armored vehicles, which drove defense expenditure during the historic period.
- The country’s defense budget increased at a CAGR of 8.33%, with an investment of US$1.0 billion in 2014 to US$1.3 billion in 2018. The government’s well-defined military modernization plans and efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist attacks, along with the country’s active and consistent participation in various peacekeeping missions, will stimulate expenditure over the forecast period.
- The country’s defense budget is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.09%, from US$1.4 billion in 2018 to US$1.6 billion in 2023.

Reasons to buy

- This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Kenyan defense industry market trends for the coming five years
- The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
- Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
- A deep qualitative analysis of the Kenyan defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts

Future of the Kenyan Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6
1.1. What is this Report About? 6
1.2. Definitions 6
1.3. Summary Methodology 8
1.4. About Strategic Defence Intelligence 9
2. Executive Summary 10
3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 12
3.1. Current Market Conditions 13
3.1.1. Military fleet size 13
3.1.2. Procurement Programs 16
3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 17
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 19
3.2.1. Kenyan defense budget to grow at a CAGR of 4.09% during 2019-2023 19
3.2.2. Border security, threats from terrorist group, peacekeeping missions, and the need to modernize outdated defense equipment to drive Kenya’s defense expenditure 21
3.2.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP will be at an average of 1.3% over the forecast period 23
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 25
3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period 25
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record a CAGR of 4.15% over the forecast period 27
3.3.3. Kenya’s per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period 29
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 31
3.4.1. The homeland security market in Kenya is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.25% over the forecast period 31
3.4.2. Human trafficking and illicit drugs trade to drive homeland security expenditure 33
3.4.3. Kenya faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations 35
3.4.4. Kenya faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations 36
3.4.5. Kenya has a Terrorism Index score of 6.2 38
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 39
3.5.1. Kenyan defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders 39
3.5.2. Kenya will continue to remain a small contributor in the global arms market 41
3.5.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast period 42
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends 43
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2018-2023 43
4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 44
4.1. Import Market Dynamics 45
4.1.1. Defense imports increased during the period of 2013−2017 45
4.1.2. Weapons manufactured in Serbia comprised the largest share of imports to Kenya 46
4.1.3. Aircraft and artillery accounted for a total share 86.5% in Kenyan defense imports 47
4.2. Export Market Dynamics 48
4.2.1. Kenya defense exports were negligible during 2013−2017 48
5. Industry Dynamics 49
5.1. Market Regulation 49
5.1.1. Kenya does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country 49
5.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is determined on a case to case basis 49
5.3. Market Entry Route 50
5.3.1. Budgeting Process 50
5.3.2. Equipment manufacturers enter the market through government-to-government deals 50
5.4. Key Challenges 51
5.4.1. Corruption and lack of transparency hinder the growth of Kenyan defense industry 51
5.4.2. Low defense budget to act as obstacle for foreign investors 51
6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 52
6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 52
7. Business Environment and Country Risk 54
7.1. Economic Performance 54
7.1.1. GDP per capita 54
7.1.2. GDP, current prices 55
7.1.3. Export of goods and services (LCU Billion) 56
7.1.4. Import of goods and services (LCU Billion) 57
7.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ Billion) 58
7.1.6. Local currency unit per US$ 59
7.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies 60
7.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP 61
7.1.9. Government cash surplus deficit as a percentage of GDP 62
7.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP 63
7.1.11. Good imports as a percentage of GDP 64
7.1.12. Service imports as a percentage of GDP 65
7.1.13. Service exports as a percentage of GDP 66
7.1.14. Foreign direct investments 67
7.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP 68
7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 69
8. Appendix 70
8.1. About SDI 70
8.2. Disclaimer 70

List of Tables
Table 1: Kenya Army Strength 13
Table 2: Kenya Air Force Strength 14
Table 3: Kenya Navy Strength 15
Table 4: Kenya - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs 16
Table 5: Kenya - Future Procurement Programs 16
Table 6: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023 19
Table 7: Kenyan GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023 23
Table 8: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 25
Table 9: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion & US$ Million), 2014-2023 27
Table 10: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 29
Table 11: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES Billion& US$ Billion), 2014-2023 31
Table 12: Terrorism Index, 2018 36
Table 13:Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 39
Table 14: Top 10 Kenya Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2018-2023 43
Table 15: Kenya Budget Formation Timetable 50
Table 16: Kenya - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2018 52

List of Figures
Figure 1: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023 20
Figure 2: Kenyan Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 20
Figure 3: Kenya GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth,2014-2023 24
Figure 4: Kenyan Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023 26
Figure 5: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023 28
Figure 6: Kenyan Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2014-2023 28
Figure 7: Kenyan Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023 30
Figure 8: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (KES Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 9: Kenyan Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023 32
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018 35
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018 38
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2014-2018 vs. 2019-2023 40
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023 41
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018 42
Figure 15: Kenya Defense Import Trend, 2013-2017 (US$ Million) 45
Figure 16: Kenyan Defense Import by Country, 2013-2017 46
Figure 17: Kenyan Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017 47
Figure 18: Kenya - GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025 54
Figure 19: Kenya - GDP Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025 55
Figure 20: Kenya - Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 56
Figure 21: Kenya - Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014 57
Figure 22: Kenya - Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013 58
Figure 23: Kenya - LCU per US$, 2015-2024 59
Figure 24: Kenya - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012 60
Figure 25: Kenya - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP), 2005-2012 61
Figure 26: Kenya - Cash Surplus Deficit as (Percentage of GDP), 2008-2012 62
Figure 27: Kenya - Good Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 63
Figure 28: Kenya - Good Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 64
Figure 29: Kenya - Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 65
Figure 30: Kenya - Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 66
Figure 31: Kenya - Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014 67
Figure 32: Kenya - Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014 68
Figure 33: Kenya’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion) 2005-2014 69

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