Future of the Bruneian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

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Date: 27-Jul-2013
No. of pages: 77
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Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Bruneian defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Future of the Bruneian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain a market share in the Bruneian defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

Bruneian defense expenditure registered a CAGR of 10.3% during the review period and values US$0.5 billion in 2013. The focus of the Bruneian government will be on modernization initiatives, border disputes, and the prevention of international terrorism.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Modernization initiatives, border disputes, and the prevention of international terrorism.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Future of the Bruneian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

  • The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.
  • The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Bruneian defense industry.
  • The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.
  • The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.
  • The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Brunei. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

  • Brunei’s defense budget is small compared to large defense spenders and even its neighboring countries. With US$0.5 billion set aside for its 2013 defense budget and projected figures of US$0.6 billion for 2018, the country will find it hard to convince investors and suppliers to treat Brunei as a preferred destination for investment. Moreover, the moderate security threat to the nation and a relatively small population do not warrant large capital or revenue defense expenditure. Consequently, the purchase of military equipment and hi-tech arms and ammunition gets affected.]
  • [Brunei's foreign investment policies are unclear, in particular, the limits on foreign equity participation and the sectors in which investment is restricted. In addition, military procurement is a closed process with no clear cut criteria to be met in order to secure an order. This creates uncertainty among investors and poses a serious challenge to foreign direct investment in the sector.]
  • [The Brunei defense industry is mainly managed by RBTS which is a semi-government-owned firm and the participation from other domestic private companies is negligible. Therefore, the majority of its military equipment is purchased through import channels. Due to the lack of manufacturing capabilities, the nation has no export contracts. Furthermore, the country is still in its nascent stage and is expected to explore better procurement opportunities and to prioritize other major areas in order to enhance the country's defense capabilities.

Key Highlights

  • The country hosts the Brunei International Defense Exhibition (BRIDEX) biennially. Beginning in 2007, the event provided a platform for global defense equipment manufacturers to showcase their products and strengthen their defense capabilities. In the 2011 event, 166 companies representing 31 countries participated. Exhibitors included Bell Helicopter, BAE Systems, EADS, General Dynamics, Harris Corporation, Northrop Gruman, Raytheon Company, SAAB AB and others. The next BRIDEX event is scheduled to take place on 3-7 December 2013. With the country embarking on a defense modernization plan, foreign OEMs have an opportunity to enter Brunei’s defense market. Supply opportunities include airborne coastal surveillance, early warning radars for the air force, support helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, larger patrol vessels for maritime security, and a ground based air defense system.
  • As a consequence of low levels of defense expenditure in the past and demand to modernize its armed forces, Brunei has procured arms directly from foreign suppliers. For instance, in January 2010, Northrop Grumman Corporation was awarded a contract to provide a joint operations center command and control capability, in February 2011 CAE won a contract to develop a state-of-the-art national modeling and simulation center. Additionally, in May 2013, Harris Corp was awarded a US$40 million contract to supply its Falcon III family of tactical communication systems to the Royal Brunei Armed Forces.
  • [Brunei's arms imports are dominated by Germany mainly due to the purchase of four Corvette and three offshore patrol vessels by the Brunei Naval forces in 2010 and 2011 respectively. During 2008-2012, 81.7% of the country's arms imports were from Germany, 6.4% from France, 4.5% each from Denmark and the Netherlands, and 2.9% from Sweden. Additionally, Brunei imported military trucks from Malaysia and rocket launchers from Singapore during the review period. Brunei is now looking to forge defense procurement deals with other countries such as the US, China, Ukraine and Indonesia. The country has also shown interest in purchasing air defense systems and naval equipment from Russia.

Future of the Bruneian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018

Table Of Contents

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Research Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence (www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com)

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Brunei's defense expenditure expected to marginally increase at a CAGR of 6.8% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Modernization initiatives, international terrorism, and border disputes are expected to drive defense spending
3.1.3. Military spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. The share of capital expenditure in the overall defense budget is expected to increase marginally during the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow during the forecast period
3.2.3. Government to spend US$0.3 billion on revenue expenditure during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow moderately over the forecast period
3.3.2. HLS expenditure to be driven by the country's efforts to counter human trafficking, cyber threats, money laundering, and terrorism financing
3.3.3. Brunei faces a moderate level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Brunei's defense expenditure is expected to remain low during the forecast period
3.4.2. Brunei's defense expenditure as percentage of GDP higher than some of the leading defense spenders
3.4.3. Brunei has a high per capita defense expenditure
3.4.4. Brunei faces a low level of threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. S-70i helicopter program will provide business opportunities
3.5.2. Increasing demand to enhance maritime security
3.5.3. Demand for equipment to enhance land force capabilities is expected to increase

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense imports expected to increase during the forecast period
4.1.2. Germany dominated Brunei's defense imports during the review period
4.1.3. Ships were the major defense imports during the review period
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Brunei does not export military equipment due to a lack of domestic manufacturing capacity

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Brunei has not disclosed any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. FDI in the defense sector is controlled entirely by the government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. The biennial defense exhibition provides an attractive entry route
6.2.2. Historical evidence points to direct commercial sales being the preferred entry route
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. A relatively small defense budget fails to attract investors and suppliers
6.3.2. Lack of transparency in the bidding process makes foreign companies wary of investing
6.3.3. Lack of manufacturing capabilities, increases the import contracts

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Private Sector Companies
7.2.1. Royal Brunei Technical Services: overview
7.2.2. Royal Brunei Technical Services: services
7.2.3. Royal Brunei Technical Services: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Royal Brunei Technical Services: alliances
7.2.5. Royal Brunei Technical Services: recent contract wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Urban Population
8.1.2. Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Consumer Price Index
8.2.4. Local Currency Unit per USD
8.2.5. Lending Rate
8.2.6. Real Interest Rate
8.2.7. Goods Exports as % of GDP
8.2.8. Goods Imports as % of GDP
8.2.9. Goods Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.10. Service Imports as % of GDP
8.2.11. Service Exports as % of GDP
8.2.12. Service Trade Surplus/Deficit as % of GDP
8.2.13. Foreign Direct Investments
8.2.14. Net Foreign Direct Investments as % of GDP
8.2.15. International reserves, including gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.2. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.3. Petroleum Consumption
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Air Transport, Freight (million ton-km)
8.4.2. Roads, total network (km)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Telecommunication
8.6.1. Telephone lines
8.6.2. Mobile Cellular Subscriptions

9 Appendix

List Of Tables

Table 1: Bruneian Defense Expenditure, 2009-2013
Table 2: Bruneian Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018
Table 3: Bruneian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013
Table 4: Bruneian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as
Table 5: Bruneian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2009-2013
Table 6: Bruneian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2014-2018
Table 7: Brunei's Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013
Table 8: Brunei's Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018
Table 9: Brunei's Defense Budget Allocation for Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013
Table 10: Brunei's Defense Budget Allocation for Revenue Expenditure(US$ billion), 2014-2018
Table 11: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2009-2013 vs. 2014-2018
Table 12: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 13: Royal Brunei Technical Services - Product Focus
Table 14: Royal Brunei Technical Services - Alliances
Table 15: Royal Brunei Technical Services: - Recent Contract Wins

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Bruneian Defense Expenditure, 2009-2013
Figure 2: Bruneian Defense Expenditure, 2014-2018
Figure 3: Bruneian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2009-2013
Figure 4: Bruneian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as  Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2018
Figure 5:  Bruneian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure
Figure 6: Bruneian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure
Figure 7: Brunei's Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2009-2013
Figure 8: Brunei's Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ billion), 2014-2018
Figure 9: Brunei's Defense Budget Allocation for Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion),2008-2012
Figure 10: Brunei's Defense Budget Allocation for Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion),  2014-2018
Figure 11: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2013
Figure 12: SDI Terrorism Index, 2013
Figure 13: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2009-2013 vs. 2014-2018
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),  2013 and 2018
Figure 15: Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2013
Figure 16: Per-capita Defense Expenditure of the Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), 2013
Figure 17: Brunei Defense Imports Trend, 2008-2012
Figure 18: Brunei Defense Imports by Country (%), 2008-2012
Figure 19: Brunei's Defense Imports by Category (%), 2008-2012
Figure 20: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
Figure 21: Bruneian Urban Population (In Millions), 2008-2018
Figure 22: Bruneian Number of Households - (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 23: Bruneian GDP Per Capita, 2008-2017
Figure 24: Bruneian GDP Per Capita, 2008-2018
Figure 25: Bruneian Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017
Figure 26: Bruneian LCU per USD, 2009-2018
Figure 27: Bruneian Lending Rate (%), 2002-2011
Figure 28: Bruneian Real Interest Rate (%), 2002-2011
Figure 29: Bruneian Good Exports as (% of GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 30: Bruneian Good Imports as (% of GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 31: Bruneian Goods Balance (% GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 32: Bruneian Service Imports (% GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 33: Bruneian Service Exports (% GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 34: Bruneian Service Trade Surplus/Deficit (% GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 35: Bruneian Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, current US$ billion), 2002-2009
Figure 36: Bruneian Net Foreign Direct Investments (% GDP), 2001-2009
Figure 37: Bruneian International Reserves, including gold (US$ billion), 2002-2011
Figure 38: Bruneian Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours),  2001-2010
Figure 39: Bruneian Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 40: Bruneian Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2002-2011
Figure 41: Bruneian Air Transport, Freight (million ton-km), 2001-2011
Figure 42: Bruneian Roads total network (km), 2004-2010
Figure 43: Bruneian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2002-2011
Figure 44: Bruneian Telephone lines Penetration Rate (per 100 people), 2001-2010
Figure 45: Bruneian Mobile Cellular Subscriptions (In million), 2002-2011

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