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BMI View: The UK vote to leave the EU will weigh on France's economic growth over the next few
quarters, which in turn will pose downside risks to our pharmaceutical and healthcare sector forecasts.
Despite the large pharmaceutical market and high drug spending per capita, which will continue to make
France a major global market for drugmakers, market expansion will only resume at a slow pace over the
next few years, with return to marginal positive growth in 2017. In line with our view in recent quarters, the
rate of investment growth in France's pharmaceutical sector has remained relatively subdued in H116,
while this trend will likely continue over the coming quarters, in part due to sluggish labour market reform.
Headline Expenditure Projections
? Pharmaceuticals: EUR33.46bn (USD37.11bn) in 2015 to EUR33.34bn (USD35.68bn) in 2016; -0.3% in
local currency terms and -3.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with last quarter.
? Healthcare: EUR251.26bn (USD278.66bn) in 2015 to EUR257.25bn (USD275.26bn) in 2016; +2.4% in
local currency terms and -1.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.